Cardinals’ Marcell Ozuna, Sleeper Candidate for 2019 NL MVP

March 13, 2019

Marcell+Ozuna+New+York+Mets+vs+St+Louis+Cardinals+xfM_PLT4JxEl — (Photo Credit: Dilip Vishwanat at Getty Images)

(Photo Credit: Dilip Vishwanat at Getty Images)

Marcell Ozuna is closing in on a full recovery from his offseason surgery, repairing an injured shoulder that plagued him for the duration of the 2018 season. A healthy Ozuna will, in all likelihood, be slotted into left field on Opening Day, and he is my sleeper candidate for 2019 National League MVP…but it has little to do with his healthy throwing arm.

After a breakout season in 2017 – during which he was named an All-Star for the second consecutive season and finished 15th in MVP voting, taking home his first career Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Awards – he saw a steep decline in his overall production during his first season in St. Louis.

Ozuna encored his 2017 campaign – in which he hit .312/.376/.548 (149 OPS+) with 37 home runs, 124 RBI, 5.8 rWAR, 5.1 fWAR, 144 wRC+, and a .388 wOBA – by batting .280/.325/.433 (106 OPS+) with 23 home runs, 88 RBI, 2.9 rWAR, 2.7 fWAR, 106 wRC+, and a .327 wOBA in 2018.

But perhaps not all was bad for Ozuna last season, maybe, in fact, he was just unlucky – and I am not just talking about the nagging shoulder injury.

Stats aside: Ozuna did rally to bat .317/.363/.553 in his final 50 games in 2018, helping the Cardinals to a 31-19 (.620) record during that stretch.

His BAbip plummeted to .309, from .355 a year prior, well below even his career mark of .327, to that point, which may be indicative of some bad luck.

He had 213 hard-hit balls (95 mph or greater) last season, eighth most in all of baseball, sandwiching him between Mookie Betts (218) and Giancarlo Stanton (211). Of which, 158 had an exit velocity of at least 100 mph, good for sixth in MLB, five fewer than National League MVP Christian Yelich in the fifth spot.

He finished 23rd in baseball in hard-hit percentage, at 44.7 percent, just a hair beneath Bryce Harper at 45.1 percent. And his average exit velocity on batted balls sat at 91.5 percent, 15th best in baseball, better than not only Bryce Harper (90.6), but also Mike Trout (91.2).

So why didn’t the baseball card numbers reflect the great company Ozuna seemingly kept?

This is where he ranked in terms of batted outs:

95-plus mph: 100 (8th)
100-plus mph: 63 (2nd)
Solid contact or better: 33 (7th)
Barrels: 16 (1st)

(Developed by Tom Tango; Photo Credit: statcast)

Ozuna’s slugging percentage sat .150 points below what was expected – based on exit velocity and launch angle – on batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph, and .176 points below what was expected on balls hit 100 mph or more.

Moreover, he had the most egregious wOBA and a overall slugging percentage differentials, in terms of what was expected, in the National League, at minus-.027 and minus-.059, respectively.

Overall, though he did see his walk-rate drop nearly 3.4 percent, his overall plate discipline may have actually improved, as his strikeout percentage declined by 3.7 percent – swinging at pitches outside of the zone less often and making contact on pitches inside of the zone more often.

As a final note, of Ozuna’s 110 strikeouts, 14.5 percent were strikeouts looking on pitches that were actually outside of the strike zone. His 16 bad call strikeouts were third most in baseball last season.

Look for a healthy Ozuna to regress – rather progress – back to form and put up numbers that are just as good as, if not better than, what we saw in his breakout season just two years ago. And with the additions of Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller, the Cardinals could very well find their way back to the top of the National League Central.

Worth noting: Ozuna is at 40/1 to win the National League MVP. Might be worth a shot.

From Cal Ripken Jr. to Allen Iverson and the Oddities Between

Ryan M. Spaeder

March 6, 2019

On Sept. 19, 1998, Cal Ripken Jr. played in his 2,632nd consecutive game. The following evening, he removed himself from the lineup, and rookie third basemen Ryan Minor started in his place – a move that, according to Ripken, Minor initially believed was a little bit of “rookie hazing.”

Stats aside: The “Iron Man” Streak began on May 30, 1982. The day prior, Ripken actually did play, but sat out the second game of Baltimore’s doubleheader, playing only in game one.

Ryan Minor was drafted four different times, originally by the Baltimore Orioles (15th round) in June 1992, then by the New York Mets (7th round) in June 1995, again by the Orioles (33rd round) in June 1996, and lastly, by the Philadelphia 76ers (32nd overall) later on that same month.

Minor, despite being an All-American basketball player at Oklahoma, averaging 22.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game between his junior and senior seasons; despite being drafted earlier overall by the Sixers than the round in which the Orioles had selected him just 22 days before, opted to play baseball, signing with the Orioles on July 7, 1996.

Here is where it gets even more interesting…

Minor was the Sixers third selection, of four, in that draft. Their second, immediately prior, at 31st overall, was Mark Hendrickson, out of Washington State, who was taken in every single MLB draft from 1992 to 1997.

Hendrickson, unlike Minor, did give basketball a shot. But after a short, unsuccessful stint in the NBA, he returned to baseball, having never fully abandoned the game, playing semi-pro ball during the NBA’s offseasons. Hendrickson would go on to have a 10-year big league career, making the plurality of his career appearances with Minor’s Orioles.

If this isn’t weird enough, the Sixers would use their final pick of the 1996 draft, 43rd overall, to take Jamie Feick, who did not go on to be a professional baseball player, but, after a short NBA career, a professional fisherman.

Fortunately for Philadelphia, the Sixers did utilize their first pick, and first overall, in the 1996 draft on an actual basketball player – though he was the AP High School Player of the Year in both basketball and football – from the Georgetown Hoyas, No. 3, Allen Iverson.

*Iverson had a lower field goal percentage and free throw percentage than both Hendrickson and Minor at the collegiate level.* (Photo via Getty Images)

Bryce Harper to Philadelphia was Inevitable

Ryan M. Spaeder

February 28, 2019

Last night, I was working on a story on why Bryce Harper to the Philadelphia Phillies is still inevitable, which I finished up and posted today at noon while on lunch. About three hours later, Jon Heyman broke the news, Harper is indeed headed to the Phillies, on a 13-year, $330 million contract.

This charade went on long enough, and while the Dodgers, Giants, and the Phillies were all apparently in the running, my contention is that Bryce Harper was headed to Philadelphia all along.

In my piece, published this afternoon, I assessed that Harper wished to sign long-term now, rather than short-term with the Dodgers or the Giants, seeking out a new contract after the CBA in 2021. And that an opt-out after the 2021 season would merely be Harper and Boras Co. getting everything that they wanted. I believed that Harper then would only exercise such an option if the CBA resulted in something drastic, like the suspension or removal of the luxury tax, or more likely, a major increase on the luxury tax threshold, which would assuredly result in a surge to player salaries across Major League Baseball.

I continued, stating that Bryce Harper to Philadelphia seemed to me, inevitable, he had been offered what will end up being a record deal, both in terms of total salary and average annual value (AAV), and that it was just a matter of whether Harper and Boras Co. are willing to compromise or the Phillies are going to give them exactly what they want.

Now, I was wrong about it being a record deal in terms of AAV, but it is indeed the largest contract, in terms of total dollar amount in baseball history. I believe that the extra three years are that compromise that I was talking about, and that the Phillies were able to find common ground with Bryce Harper and Boras Co., instead of giving them exactly what they wanted.

The reason this signing did not happen sooner is because of the brilliance of Scott Boras. Boras managed to turn the entire city of Philadelphia, despite and already successful offseason, against Matt Klentak and John Middleton – turning much of the city against Harper, in the process, but knowing all would be forgiven when he eventually signed. Boras forced the hands of Klentak and Middleton, strong-arming them into giving his client the best deal possible.

Bryce Harper in Phillies pinstripes was inevitable, but so was Scott Boras being the inventive, manipulative genius that makes him the best ballplayer agent in the game.

Final thought: Bryce Harper’s relatively low AAV of $25.4 million is indicative of even more of Philly’s plans for the future, and that is, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout in the same outfield. Book it.

Bryce Harper to the Phillies is Still Inevitable

Ryan M. Spaeder

February 28, 2019

Nolan Arenado just signed a record deal with the Colorado Rockies, during which he will be paid $255 million over the span of eight seasons – that is if he does not opt-out after the 2021 season.

That opt-out comes just in time for the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement (CBA). Currently, many players feel as though their earning power is handicapped; specifically, by the luxury tax – which serves, essentially, as a salary cap (for most teams, anyway) – and by complacent owners, unwilling to spend, content with mediocrity.

Perhaps instead of essentially levying fines on teams that are trying to win by spending, Major League Baseball should be taxing those who refuse to spend – winning, say, 63 games in the process. As it stands, a lockout after the expiration of the CBA seems inevitable.

Bryce Harper remains a free agent, and, according to you pick which reporter, as it stands, only the Phillies, Giants, and Dodgers are still in the running.

The major snag for Harper and Boras Co. with the Dodgers is that it appears they wish only to sign Harper to a short-term deal.

The Giants also seem reluctant to go long-term on Bryce – though according to Alex Pavlovic, San Francisco’s tone may have changed, but I am not buying it. Sure, the Giants and Harper may have “discussed” a 10-year deal, but that could be something as simple as Boras demanding a long-term contract and the Giants balking.

The Phillies, on the other hand, have offered Bryce that long-term contract, several reports have indicated a 10-year deal worth well north of $300 million.

So whats the hold up?

Well, according to former New York Mets General Manager and current baseball analyst Steve Phillips, the Phillies do not want to include and opt-out after three years, instead preferring to allow him to opt-out halfway thorugh. Steve insists that “Harper wants to opt-out after three years hoping that he can go back into free agency and ride Mike Trout’s coattails to a bigger payday.” Trout, of course, will be a free agent after the 2020 season.

Here is where Steve and I differ: I don’t think Trout has anything to do with it, if he did, an opt-out after five years might suffice; rather, it has everything to do with the impending CBA; in essence, Harper and Boras Co. want exactly what Scott’s former client, Nolan Arenado, got from Colorado.

So why wouldn’t Harper just take a short-term deal with the Dodgers or Giants, wait out the CBA, then sign another deal?

I assess that Harper wishes to sign long-term now, and the opt-out after the 2021 season would merely be Harper and Boras Co. getting everything that they want. I believe that Harper then would only exercise such an option if the CBA resulted in something drastic, like the suspension or removal of the luxury tax, or more likely, a major increase on the luxury tax threshold, which would assuredly result in a surge to player salaries across Major League Baseball.

In the end, Bryce Harper to Philadelphia seems to me, inevitable, he has been offered what will end up being a record deal, both in terms of total salary and average annual value (AAV), it is just a matter of whether Harper and Boras Co. are willing to compromise or the Phillies are going to give them exactly what they want.

Colorado Rockies Sign Nolan Arenado to a Club Friendly Contract

Ryan M. Spaeder

February 27, 2019

Nolan Arenado will forgo his record $26 million arbitration salary for a position player record average annual salary of $32.5 million as he and the Colorado Rockies came to terms on an eight-year, $260 million deal (via Jeff Passan).

Arenado has been given a full no-trade clause and will be afforded the opportunity to walk away from the Rockies, if he wishes to seek out a new deal, after the 2021 season (via Ken Rosenthal).

Many believe that the Rockies overpaid, because, you know, “COORS!” But I contend that the Rockies may have actually gotten a club-friendly deal.

Over the past four seasons, Arenado has been worth the following dollar amounts (millions) in terms of WAR:

2015 – $46.4 (BR) | $36.0 (FG)
2016 – $52.4 (BR) | $40.5 (FG)
2017 – $58.1 (BR) | $45.2 (FG)
2018 – $44.6 (BR) | $45.4 (FG)

But…“COORS!” Right?

Wrong.

Both Baseball-Reference (BR) and FanGraphs (FG) have a ballpark factor in their WAR formulas, accounting for the infamous “Coors Effect.” Moreover, it is entirely possible, if not likely, that Arenado was actually worth even more in terms of WAR dollars, as neither formula account for – or are even really able to account for – the lesser known “Hangover Effect.”

Now, Kevin and I explain this phenomenon in much further depth in Incredible Baseball Stats, Version II (now available on pre-sale), but to give a mile high overview as to what the theory is, it is the idea that, while players do indeed see a boost in their offensive production when playing their home games at Coors Field, that boost in production is at home alone – and when the same player is on the road, his numbers experience a far more dramatic decline than a traveling player who plays his home games in, say, Philadelphia.

Bear in mind, aside from a batted ball’s carry at high altitude, a pitcher essentially loses his ability to effectively throw breaking pitches when visiting Coors Field, where Rockies’ players play half of their games – home advantage. Then, when Rockies’ players hit the road, they may see that very same pitcher, throwing an entirely different repertoire or even just other pitchers throwing pitches that they are not otherwise seeing in half of their games – road disadvantage.

Let’s take a by-the-numbers look at this…

Over those same past four seasons, the Rockies, as one would likely expect, have led baseball in slugging at home, at .502, topping the second place Boston Red Sox by 42-points. But over that same stretch, the Rockies have a road slugging percentage of just .383, virtually tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for worst in baseball, two-points fewer than the San Diego Padres, five-ticks beneath the San Francisco Giants, and 59-points shy of the leading Houston Astros.

This should lead one to believe one of two things: either that without the “Coors Effect” the Rockies, offensively, are basically the Padres – who, mind you, play 11.1 percent of their road games at Coors Field – or that the “Hangover Effect” is real and its negative impact is great.

But how great?

Well, going back to the past four seasons, MLB has slugged, as a whole, .414 – the Rockies have outperformed that by 21.0 percent at home (18.5 percent, home vs. home), but undershot it by 7.5 percent on the road (5.6 percent road vs. road). The Red Sox, who play in hitter-friendly Fenway Park, out-slugged MLB by 10.8 percent at home (8.9 percent home vs. home), but fell 1.2 percent short on the road (0.1 percent better road vs road).

This still seems to vastly favor the impact of the “Coors Effect” over that of the “Hangover Effect.”

But not so fast. That assumes that the Rockies were an otherwise average slugging team – the Detroit Tigers, if you will – and I am not sure anyone would argue that, “Coors Effect” or not.

Overall, Colorado out-slugged the league by 6.7 percent since 2015. Over that same period, the Astros topped the league by 6.0 percent and the Red Sox by 4.7 percent; the Tigers – your league average slugging team – by just 0.3 percent and, just for fun, even the Baltimore Orioles have bested league average by 2.0 percent.

This puts us at a bit of a standstill, as we only know how these teams performed in various stadiums and cannot do much to determine how any of these teams would perform in the proverbial vacuum and instead.

So, again, one is left to conclude one of two things: either that without the “Coors Effect” the Rockies are basically the Padres or that the “Hangover Effect” is real and its negative impact is great – so great, in fact, that it renders Coors Field’s impact nearly net neutral when compared to any other hitter’s park

Stat aside: The Padres have slugged just .439 at Coors Field over the past four seasons, by the way, just 5.9 percent above league average slugging during that span.

My conclusion: whatever effect aside, the Rockies signed Nolan Arenado to a record contact – despite this, it was a very club-friendly deal.

Moneyball before Moneyball

Ryan M. Spaeder

February 9, 2019

Billy Beane made his major league debut on Sept. 13, 1984. That year, on-base percentage officially became a statistic – the dawn of Moneyball, however, would not come for another decade-and-a-half. But for some, that yet to be known style of play was the only way to play.

One of those who played this style ahead of his time: Wade Boggs.

By the time Wade Boggs made his major league debut on April 10, 1982, he was nearly 24 years old, with six seasons and 662 games of professional baseball under his belt. Despite the fact that he had a .318 batting average and a .412 on-base percentage (which technically didn’t even exist at this point) during that six-year stretch, his stealthy talent went largely unnoticed.

But why?

Well, because during those same 662 games, Boggs had virtually no power. He hit just nine home runs with a .386 slugging percentage. And old school, unwritten baseball rules required that punch-and-judy singles hitters be able to steal bases. But Wade was not fast enough, averaging fewer than five steals-per-season during his time in the minors.

When Boggs finally did get his big league opportunity, it didn’t take long for his unsung minor league success to translate to the major league level. On July 1, 1982, in what was just his 58th career at-bat (65th plate appearance) he led off a game against the Tigers with a single to centerfield off Milt Wilcox, lifting his lifetime batting average to .328 – Wade’s career would span 9,122 more at-bats (10,675 plate appearances) and his lifetime batting average would never again dip below that mark.

Modern statistics tell us that Wade was the American League’s most valuable position player in 1986, 1987, and 1988, and the league’s second most valuable player in 1983, 1985, and 1989. He won five batting titles during that stretch and six on-base percentage crowns. In 1985, he reached base safely in 152 games (of 161 played). This still stands as a major league record; moreover, in the games he failed to reach base safely, he knocked in a run in three and had just one plate appearance in another. He led all of baseball in times safely on base for seven straight seasons from 1983 to 1989. During that stretch, he also became the first player to record seven straight 200-hit seasons since Wee Willie Keeler had eight straight from 1894 to 1901. In 1986, he became the first player with at least 200 hits and 100 walks in a season since Stan Musial in 1953. He would go on to repeat that every season through 1989, four-straight, a feat unmatched throughout baseball history.

Stats aside: Wade Boggs maintained a .463 on-base percentage from 1986 to 1988. Joe DiMaggio maintained a .463 on-base percentage during his record hit-streak from Game No. 1 to Game No. 56.

Yet somehow, he remained overlooked, underrated, and underappreciated. During that same stretch, he never finished higher than fourth in MVP voting. In fact, he did not receive a single first-place vote in ANY of the seasons mentioned above.

Wade Boggs’ unique skillset was so undervalued, that the beloved Bostonian was not even tenured a contract by the Red Sox after a flukey, down 1992 season. This even despite the fact that he had been promised a contract, prior to the season, that would make him a member of the Red Sox for life.

Wade Boggs, Future Hall of Famer Angler (International Game Fish Association).

What’s a fluke? If you ask Boggs that, he would likely tell you a flounder; Wade is an acute angler and actually holds the International Game Fish Association world record for largest bluefish ever caught (87 centimeters). He will, in all likelihood, one day join Ted Williams as the lone members of both the National Baseball Hall of Fame and the International Game Fish Association Hall of Fame. But if you ask me, what’s a fluke? I would say Wade’s 1992 season. Which was, perhaps, one of the most unlucky seasons in baseball history, during which he saw his batting average on balls in play drop below his career mark of .360, way down to .261 on the season.

Wade Boggs would play through the 1990s. His final game on Aug. 27, 1999, finishing with 3,010 hits – at a time when 3,000 hits guaranteed enshrinement in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

Wade Boggs received his Hall of Fame call on Jan. 4, 2005, and on July 31, 2005, he was inducted, as a first ballot Hall of Famer.

But is it possible that the talents of Wade Boggs, again, a first ballot Hall of Famer, were still underappreciated? (Aside from his beer drinking abilities, of course).

I contend that they were.

It was not until May 26, 2016, that the Red Sox righted a longtime injustice, retiring Wade’s No. 26 jersey. This, after allowing the likes of Wes Chamberlain, Lee Tinsley, Alejandro Pena, Aaron Sele, Orlando Merced, Chris Snopek, Rob Stanifer, Sean Berry, Lou Merloni, Freddy Sanchez, Ramiro Mendoza, Scott Podsednik, and Brock Holt to don the iconic number. Sure, there were rules in place regarding having your number retired in Boston – basically, a ballplayer had to finish their career with the Red Sox – but the Sox manipulated those rules to retire No. 27, for Carlton Fisk.

Sox aside: no Boston player has worn Roger Clemens’s No. 21 since he last played for the Red Sox in 1996.

Incorrectly shows that Wade Boggs reached base safely in 80 percent of games played (Ryan M. Spaeder, National Baseball Hall of Fame).

And not only this, but months prior to Wade’s number retirement ceremony, I made a discovery. His National Baseball Hall of Fame plaque had an error on it! Stating, “reached base safely in 80 percent of games played,” which is perhaps an even greater injustice than the Red Sox allowing Lou Merloni to wear No. 26, as Wade Boggs reached base safely in 85.2 percent of games played. This plaque error was hardly immaterial, as 5.2 percent of games played represents 127 games during his career – he played 126 games during the entire 1995 season!

This past summer, I decided to make the National Baseball Hall of Fame aware of this blunder, sending them an email, hoping that they would update his plaque.

Updated to correctly reflect that Wade Boggs reached base safely in 85 percent of games played. (National Baseball Hall of Fame).

Much like the Red Sox, the National Baseball Hall of Fame did decide to correct a longtime injustice. They updated Wade Boggs’ plaque. It now reads that he “reached base safely in 85 percent of games played.” (Technically still 0.2 percent off, but we can deal with that degree of rounding).

But the question remains, how did this guy get overlooked so many times throughout his career? How was a skillset that would garner $30 million-or-more per year in modern baseball so undervalued?

Billy Beane made his major league debut on Sept. 13, 1984, the same year that on-base percentage officially became a statistic – Beane took over as the Athletics General Manager the year before Wade Boggs retired.

Simply put, Wade Boggs was Moneyball before Moneyball.

Forget the Plaque, McGwire Deserves a Damn Statue

Ryan M. Spaeder

January 26, 2019

There are, have always been, and will always be players in baseball trying to get an edge in some way, shape, or form – from anabolics to emery boards, from speed to cork. Many want to point fingers at players like Barry Bonds, one of the greatest ballplayers of all-time, and Mark McGwire for ruining the game, when in fact, many of these guys never received a suspension, failed a drug test, or even took an illegal, banned, or tested substance – note I did not say steroid or anabolic compound – for that matter.

Doping has always been a part of baseball and will always be, as the drugs will always be ahead of the testing curve. From Pud Galvin, a Hall of Famer mind you, reportedly using monkey testosterone in 1889, to one of the greatest sluggers in history, Babe Ruth, allegedly injecting sheep testicles in 1925, to Hall of Famers like Hank Aaron, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays admittedly using greenies (amphetamines) in the 1970s; Aaron’s former teammate Tom House even said that he and his teammates were taking everything under the sun – amphetamines, HGH, whatever steroids they could find, “things that shouldn’t be given to horses,” in the 1970s; to the cocaine scandal of 1985, to the juiced players of the 1990s and 2000s, and so on.

Even modern players use performance enhancing drugs (PEDs), and no, I am not even talking about Robinson Cano and the like who were suspended for their illegal usage; therapeutic use exemptions (TUEs) are obtained by many players in today’s game, for everything from Adderall to testosterone therapy to even Human Growth Hormone (HGH). Not to mention things that remain untested – blood doping, stem cell therapy, et al; even platelet-rich plasma (PRP) therapy could be considered PED-use, but it is utilized and accepted throughout Major League Baseball – as it should be, but that is not the point.

Often, I hear the argument: “amphetamines are way different than the steroids players are or were using,” and this is true, there is no debating that. But they have a number of things in common with them.

Example 1: the end goal – to endure a grueling 162-game season and play everyday at 100 percent – is the same when using both drugs.

Example 2: the greenies of the 1970s and let’s say the androst-4-ene-3, 17-dione, or “Andro,” that was sitting in Mark McGwire’s locker during his famous 1998 season, are both banned today, but not at the time when said players were using them.

Example 3: the drugs used, the greenies of the 1970s or the steroids of the 1990s, were the best drugs readily available to players at that specific time.

My overall point is this: to say that one thing is okay, to give certain players a pass for any reason – generally, what I see is fans and writers giving Aaron, Mays, Mantle, et al. a pass because they grew up idolizing them, though they would never admit that is why, rather they camouflage their bias under the guise that, “it is different,” when really, it is not – is wrong. To say these guys are allowed in, because they somehow “cheated less” is delusional.

Lastly, even if I cannot convince you on anything I have said above, at least hear this: to say a guy like Jeff Bagwell does not belong in the Hall of Fame, to take from him what he earned, due to the fact that he was “probably a ‘ROIDER'” because of the era in which he played and the numbers he put up – while simultaneously guaranteeing Junior’s innocence, mind you – is wrong. No one is guilty by association in this.

Having said all of this, I do not condone drug use or drug use in baseball. Suspensions are now in place and are, in my opinion, a fit punishment. But, I also am not willing to write-off a player’s entire career, for example Manny Ramirez or David Ortiz, because they tested positive.

Final thought: Mark McGwire saved baseball. He should not only be in the National Baseball Hall of Fame, but he should also have a bronze statue out front of the museum.

Walter Johnson Probably Threw 88 MPH

Ryan M. Spaeder

January 24, 2019

Last month, one of the best relief hurlers in baseball, Adam Ottavino, claimed “I would strike [Babe Ruth] out every time.” I do not think that Ottavino would necessarily strikeout Ruth every time, but I believe if we do “wake up the damn Bambino,” Ottavino would dominate one of the game’s all-time greats.

So how can I still refer to Babe Ruth as one of baseball’s greatest players? Simple, because human evolution, modern technology, and advanced medicine and training give the argument necessary context, but we will come back to this…

Ruth first set the single-season home run record in 1919, blasting 29 home runs, besting Ned Williamson’s 1884 total of 27. The best pitcher in baseball at that time – and perhaps of all-time – was Walter Johnson, known for his powerful fastball – deemed by Ty Cobb to be “the most threatening sight [he] had ever seen on a ballfield.” Johnson did not allow a single big fly over the span of 290⅓ innings pitched that season – though he did hit one!

Stats aside: Of Williamson’s 27 home runs in 1884, 25 came at Chicago’s Lakeshore Park, which was 186 feet to left field, 300 feet to center field, and 190 to right field. Prior to 1884, balls over the fence were ground rule doubles. After the 1884 season, Chicago left the friendly confines of Lakeshore for the more spacious West Side Park.

Only three pitchers ever have had more innings pitched in a single season without allowing a single home run, but hitting at least one of their own than Johnson did in 1919: Frank Smith in 1905 (291⅔ innings with one home run), Babe Ruth in 1916 (323⅔ innings with three home runs), and Johnson himself, 1916 (369⅔ innings with one home run).

My contention is this: Johnson’s fastball, thrown by “the most powerful arm ever turned loose in a ballpark,” again, according to Cobb, was probably only about 88 mph – perhaps peaking at 91.36 mph or 134 feet-per-second, as it was measured by a Bridgeport, Connecticut munitions laboratory in 1917.

In 1919, the Doppler effect was known, but RADAR was in its infancy, but the RADAR gun would not be invented for over 30 more years, but even then, motorcycles were used to determine a pitcher’s arm strength, so with all due respect to the Bridgeport, Connecticut munitions laboratory, I decided to conduct my own experiment.

…stepping back to human evolution, modern technology, and advanced medicine and training.

Looking at “leg speed” rather than arm speed, in 1919, the world record in the mile was held by Norman Taber, who ran 4:12.6 on July 16, 1915. The modern high school mile record is 3:53.43, held by Alan Webb, completed on May 27, 2001; the current world record is 3:43.13, by Hicham El Guerrouj, ran on July 7, 1999.

[Now, before we continue, we must take a minor (major?) leap of faith, because, let’s face it, not all athletes improve – or evolve – the same throughout time, but what if they did?]

From 1917 to present day, the world record in the mile has improved by 11.67 percent. Now, let’s assume the fastball has done the same.

The best hard throwing starters in baseball – your modern Walter Johnsons, if you will – are consistently throwing 98 mph. If pitchers improved at the same rate that mile runners did, that puts the velocity kings of 100 years ago at about 87.8 mph, when compared to today’s finest. Even if we call it an even 100 mph, then we are looking at 89.6 mph. And if we give Johnson the benefit of the doubt and say that his fastball, a century ago, was the equivalent to that of the best hard throwing modern day relief pitchers, at a blazing 103 mph fastball, in the vein of this experiment, that is a 92.2 mph fastball. Lastly, and perhaps sardonically, if we compare to Aroldis Chapman – who mind you, would not have been permitted to play among the likes of Johnson – and his modern record 105.1 mph pitch, that translates to just a 94.1 mph heater – a slightly above average fastball in today’s game.

My best conclusion?

Walter Johnson, the hardest thrower the game had ever seen, probably averaged about 88 mph on his fastball and maybe topped out between 91 and 93 mph.

Having said all of this, I do not think we should discount the greatness of players throughout any period in baseball history. Instead, we should compare players in terms of on the field performance only to their contemporaries, using only adjusted stats to compare across generations, the same adjusted stats that tell us that Walter Johnson and Babe Ruth are two of the all-time greatest players in baseball history. If we do discount the past because of factors relating evolutionary or revolutionary inevitabilities, 100 years from now our great grandchildren will write-off the stellar careers of the greats of our time, like Max Scherzer, Mike Trout, and yes, even Adam Ottavino, who indeed, would have no problem sitting down Babe Ruth.

The Results: 2018

Ryan M. Spaeder

December 4, 2018

Ballots per the rules of BBWAA (click to expand):

Ballots with unlimited votes – the way that it should be (click to expand):

The Ballots: 2019

Ryan M. Spaeder

November 29, 2018

Ballot No. 41 – Mitch Harris

Andy Pettitte
Roy Halladay
Mike Mussina
Scott Rolen
Todd Helton
Edgar Martinez
Roy Oswalt
Mariano Rivera
Manny Ramirez
Curt Schilling

Mitch would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Andruw Jones
Vernon Wells
Larry Walker

Mitch would vote for both Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 40 – Anonymous former Major League ballplayer

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mariano Rivera
Manny Ramirez
Sammy Sosa
Billy Wagner
Roy Halladay
Gary Sheffield
Larry Walker
Edgar Martinez

“I was going to say thank you for including me in your project but honestly this has been some kind of a torment to me. But I can say I really appreciate you valuing my opinion as it relates to baseball and the Hall of Fame.

First off, I don’t have the answer on PED’s.

At first, when McGwire and Sosa chased Roger Maris single season home run record, I was like most everyone else in the United States, absolutely charged up by this race. It felt like baseball was the National Pastime again. But as time went on, even though legal steroid usage was not taken out of the game until 2006, there was something that felt intrinsically wrong when four of the most home runs in a season came between 1998 and 2001. So I am thankful that MLB and players have taken steps to clean up the game in that area over recent years.

As it relates to the Hall of Fame, I believe that all people of all ages have the problem or condition of sin. If I take any other approach in life, I find myself lost. Therefore, I can’t say that men throughout earlier years were less sinful until the 70’s and wouldn’t have taken PEDs or wouldn’t have cheated or didn’t cork bats or scuff or put Vaseline on the ball or whatever else. In fact, when I read about or talk to players of those generations, I find the opposite. Players were also looking for an edge, having different consciences and justifying what they did or didn’t do on and off the field. Therefore, I have to primarily compare players of each generation with the players of that same generation first, then the history of the game.

If I say ‘NO’ to PED users because that was (what some say) a different level of cheating, I have to pull out many current HOF members or turn a blind eye because they were better at hiding it, which doesn’t make sense to me.

I also think the Hall of Fame has so much to do with how you treated the unbiased media, which is another problem for me. I like the media. There are some great writers and genuine people who care about others and the integrity of the game. I just think they are like the players and are flawed as well. To say that any person, media or not, is unbiased almost feels like an
oxymoron to me.

So here goes… Because of the backlog of players I think should be in the Hall of Fame already there is no way I can narrow it down to ten. So I will put them in the order I think they belong.”

Barry Bonds – The best hitter I ever faced, period. The most intimidating, the best hand eye, best approach and on and on… I wish he was kinder to the media, teammates and fans in general. Apparently, he missed some PR classes. If it makes you feel better to attach an asterisk, I understand.

“Roger Clemens – Along with Maddux, the best pitcher of my generation. Most who played alongside him said he was the hardest worker in MLB. Pick any statistic you want.”

“Mariano Rivera – The best closer of my generation. And if you judge according to the flesh and give extra WAR points for a being a better human being, he should be at the top of your list. Enter “Sandman” and his 652 saves into the HOF!”

“Manny Ramirez – I wish he played better defense, especially late in his career. But I can’t argue away the .312 average and 555 home runs. When you were pitching and saw his name in a line-up you cringed.”

“Sammy Sosa – As I said previously, I really believe that his home run race with Mark McGwire re-energized baseball and put many, many people in the seats. 609 home runs. Again, put an asterisk if you feel the need to punish people.”

“Billy Wagner – The best closer next to Rivera. Numbers are only a tick off and he didn’t have the honor of playing for the Yankees. I hope he gives his speech in cowboy boots. Please go look at his numbers! Have you seen them?”

“Doc Halladay – Two-time Cy Young award winner and along with Larsen, the only pitcher to throw a post season no-hitter. For a time, no one was as dominant as Doc.”

“Gary Sheffield – His bat speed scared me. Hit 509 home runs in a lot of graveyards. Played Right, Third, Short, even First and had a hose. He was also a solid teammate who put in his time.”

“Larry Walker – A very underrated and complete baseball player. Seven Gold Gloves, an MVP, three batting titles, and one of the funniest teammates I’ve ever been around. I think he has been punished for playing at Coors Field, which is sad.”

“Edgar Martinez – If I understand the HOF BBWAA rules correctly, a player is supposed to be compared to other players in the history of the game at their respective positions. The best DH in the NL and AL is now given the “Edgar Martínez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award,” so… Again, if you like to compare the hearts of men from a worldly perspective, he was inducted into the World Sports Humanitarian Hall of Fame in 2007.”

Ballplayer would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Jeff Kent
Fred McGriff
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina
Scott Rolen
Omar Vizquel

“Jeff Kent – It pains me to put him on this list because he could make a bishop kick in a stained glass window. Again, I’m flawed and biased too but if I’m going to be consistent with the way I compared Edgar to others position wise, I have to put him in the Hall. Hit .290 with 377 HR and over 1,500 RBI from 2nd base.”

“Fred McGriff – The Crime Dog should have been in a while ago. A steady 493 homers and over 1,500 RBI. He was a true professional and one of the best in this generation at first. Can you imagine if some the pitchers weren’t juicing?”

“Curt Schilling – Along with Smoltz and Pettite, one of the best post game pitchers of all-time. Over 3,000 strikeouts and was certainly one of the very best in this generation, which I keep thinking has to count for the Hall of Fame. If you think his wins are light or want to compare cross generationally, look up Don Drysdale who pitched with a higher mound in a friendly park.”

“Mike Mussina – I like the WAR Stat but don’t believe it truly gives the all-encompassing full value of a player. If you disagree with me, note that Mike’s WAR is higher than Nolan Ryan’s. And Mr. Ryan was pretty good. His 270 wins are 33rd all time, 2,813 strikeouts are 20th and he has seven Gold Gloves.”

“Scott Rolen – Could be higher on this list considering he was the best defender at third base I have ever seen. Eight gold gloves, ROY, Silver Slugger and a seven-time All-Star. Like Larry Walker, he could beat you in so many ways. It all comes down to what you value.”

“Omar Vizquel – The best defensive shortstop after Ozzie retired and it wasn’t even close. Watching the baseball transfer from his glove on a double play was pure magic. I know defense is not valued as highly by baseball writers as it is by pitchers but it does win games. He once turned his back to the hitter on a pop up because he didn’t like the position of the sun or just got bored using his glove to shield the glare. Brilliant, brilliant
baseball player.”

Ballplayer votes yes on both Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

“I would vote yes on both Rose and Shoeless Joe because of the way they stood out on the field. Again, if it makes you feel more complete as a person put an asterisk.”

“By the way, I really enjoyed John Baker’s perspective on a ‘level playing field’ and will keep looking for Josh Gibson’s WAR as well.”

Ballot No. 39 – Will Ohman

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mariano Rivera
Edgar Martinez
Todd Helton
Jeff Kent
Larry Walker
Billy Wagner
Manny Ramirez
Sammy Sosa

“The biggest item of contention is any implication of wrongdoing during the ‘Steroid Era,’ however, any f the players above pass the litmus test for redefining greatness during that era.“

“There is no significant proof, in my opinion, that other players who have been voted in previously did not take PEDs, so that cannot be the mitigating factor in election.”

Will would not vote for Pete Rose, but would vote for Shoeless Joe Jackson.

“No (on Rose), simple. No gambling on baseball. Yes (on Jackson), not so simple. No proof of any wrongdoing statistically but definitely a dark gray area by accepting gamblers’ money. I’d need a smoking gun to say no.”

Ballot No. 38 – Gregg Olson

Gary Sheffield
Mariano Rivera
Manny Ramirez
Mike Mussina
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Jeff Kent
Andy Pettitte
Curt Schilling
Billy Wagner

Gregg would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Larry Walker
Todd Helton

Gregg would not vote for Pete Rose, but would vote for Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 37 – Chuckie Fick

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Andruw Jones
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mariano Rivera
Scott Rolen
Curt Schilling

“I voted for Kent and Jones, because they are some of the best to ever play their respective position. Walker and Helton had too much Coors Field pre-humidor.”

Fick would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Mike Mussina

Fick would vote for Pete Rose, but not for Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 36 – Eric Byrnes

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens

“I cannot admit anybody else until those two dudes are in.”

Byrnesie would elect both Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 35 – Anonymous former Chicago Cubs ballplayer

Mariano Rivera
Fred McGriff
Edgar Martinez
Omar Vizquel
Jeff Kent

“The Steroid Era has really complicated the cases of Bonds and Clemens. They were well on their way to the Hall of Fame without steroids, but there still remains doubt in my minds as to what their final numbers would be – they are no doubt inflated, in my opinion.”

Ballplayer would not vote for Pete Rose, but would vote for Shoeless Joe Jackson.

“Obviously, Pete Rose’s on-field performance warrants induction, bet everyone sees the Rule No. 21 poster entering and leaving the clubhouse. As much as I like Pete and idolized him as a player – I vote no. Shoeless Joe, I think there is enough doubt in my mind as to whether he actually participated in the fix of the 1919 World Series, for that reason, I would vote to rescind the ban on him and vote yes on his induction.”

Ballot No. 34 – Kelly Stinnett

Mariano Rivera
Larry Walker
Roy Halladay
Curt Schilling
Billy Wagner
Todd Helton
Fred McGriff
Andruw Jones
Mike Mussina
Gary Sheffield

Stinnett would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Omar Vizquel
Lance Berkman
Jeff Kent
Scott Rolen

Stinnett would vote for both Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 33 – Anonymous former Seattle Mariners ballplayer

Mariano Rivera
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Roy Halladay
Todd Helton
Jeff Kent
Fred McGriff
Larry Walker
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina

Ballplayer would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Omar Vizquel
Andy Pettitte
Scott Rolen
Gary Sheffield

Ballplayer would vote for Pete Rose, but would not vote for Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 32 – Anonymous former Pittsburgh Pirates ballplayer

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Edgar Martinez
Mariano Rivera
Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling
Sammy Sosa
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker

Ballplayer would vote for Pete Rose and abstains on voting on Shoeless Joe Jackson due to lack of information available.

“Pete Rose, yes, I mean come on, he had so many hits.”

Ballot No. 31 – Erick Almonte

Edgar Martinez
Mariano Rivera
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Andy Pettitte
Manny Ramirez
Curt Schilling
Jeff Kent
Omar Vizquel

Erick would vote for Pete Rose, but would not vote for Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 30 – C.J. Wilson

Roy Halladay
Andruw Jones
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Mariano Rivera
Scott Rolen
Curt Schilling
Omar Vizquel
Billy Wagner

“Mussina is the guy, for me, who gets the least respect. Always pitched in a division with the most insane offensive numbers, did not use PEDs, great control and longevity, even won Gold Glove Awards, etc. He was a hugely consistent player for a long time and threw a ton of innings, complete games, etc. when pitchers were no longer doing it – I vote him in.”

“Billy Wagner struck out 100 people multiples times as a reliever. That is insane. He struck out one-third of all batters he faced – insane. 400 saves as a lefty closer. Dominant pitcher, terrible ballparks to pitch in, retired after a stellar season, good career length, and could have pitched for better teams, resulting in even flashier saves numbers. He also was a guy you could count on for more than just a two or three out save.”

“Scott Rolen is a borderline guy that gets in because of consistent Gold Glove defense. Batting, statistically, he is very similar to Jeff Kent (who played a big bat at a very small bat position), but J.K. was never the defender that Scott was. Scott was his generation’s version of Brooks Robinson (tank defensively and dangerous, but not MVP-type, with the bat) and for many years going up against Adrian Beltre – so it’s not like he did not have competition. Great all around player.”

“Omar Vizquel was the ultimate defensive wizard and contributed to a lot of postseason teams.”

C.J. had a three-way tie for his tenth vote:

Larry Walker
Todd Helton
Jeff Kent

“Larry Walker is the case of a guy being a perfect storm – beneficiary of a hugely offensive stadium, in a hugely offensive era, before testing, before QuesTec strike zones, before humidifiers. Hard to say if he played in St. Louis for nine years what his stats would look like. Difficult case, he is right on the border. Similarly, Todd Helton, just with a higher peak, at a position that had generally compiled more offense.”

C.J. did not comment on Shoeless Joe Jackson or Pete Rose.

Uniquely, C.J. also included a list of 21 players whom he felt were the best on the ballot, though he did not necessarily vote for them.

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Sammy Sosa
Curt Schilling
Mariano Rivera
Scott Rolen
Roy Halladay
Andruw Jones
Edgar Martinez
Andy Pettitte
Manny Ramirez
Mike Mussina
Omar Vizquel
Billy Wagner
Gary Sheffield
Todd Helton
Larry Walker
Lance Berkman
Jeff Kent
Fred McGriff
Roy Oswalt

Ballot No. 29 – Mike Trombley

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Todd Helton
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
Manny Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
Sammy Sosa
Omar Vizquel

Mike would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Roy Halladay
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker

Mike would vote for both Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 28 – Felipe Alou

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Manny Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
Curt Schilling
Omar Vizquel

Ballot made possible by Peter Kerasotis, no comment provided on Pete Rose or Shoeless Joe Jackson at this time, I will reach out for further comment.

Ballot No. 27 – Mike Cameron

Mariano Rivera
Barry Bonds
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Roy Halladay
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina
Scott Rolen
Gary Sheffield
Andruw Jones

Cameron would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Roger Clemens
Larry Walker
Todd Helton
Lance Berkman

Cameron is undecided on Pete Rose and thinks Shoeless Joe Jackson should already be in the Hall of Fame.

Ballot No. 26 – Matt Walbeck

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mariano Rivera
Mike Mussina
Fred McGriff
Larry Walker
Edgar Martinez
Curt Schilling
Omar Vizquel
Todd Helton

“I want to keep my vote at ten, otherwise I might not stop. Scott Rolen was my teammate in 2001, for a bit – I still use his glove – I will vote for him next year.”

Matt would not vote for Pete Rose nor Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 25 – Larry Walker

Roy Halladay
Jeff Kent
Scott Rolen
Mariano Rivera
Edgar Martinez
Billy Wagner
Fred McGriff
Todd Helton
Mike Mussina
Curt Schilling

Larry leans no on both Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, for now…

“I’d need to put more thought into both Rose and Jackson going in, but my initial gut feeling says ‘no’ on both. I don’t know enough about the Jackson situation to make an accurate decision, and I know what Rose did was wrong, but at some point, it has to have been long enough. Nobody will ever beat his hit record…”

Ballot No. 24 – Bob File

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mariano Rivera
Manny Ramirez
Fred McGriff
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Gary Sheffield
Roy Halladay
Omar Vizquel.

Bob would not vote for Pete Rose nor Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 23 – Carlton Fisk

Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Mariano Rivera
Omar Vizquel
Billy Wagner

We can note that Pudge was particularly emphatic about his vote for Mariano Rivera.

This ballot was extremely interesting and thanks to my good friend, Pudge’s son, Casey – whom you can follow on twitter for great baseball and health and wellness tweets at @FiskPT – there are several other players that Pudge commented on.

Pudge believes that the following players had Hall of Fame careers, but would still vote no:

Barry Bonds
Rogers Clemens
Manny Ramirez
Gary Sheffield
Sammy Sosa

Pudge would consider voting for the following players upon further research, you know, something he might do if he had a say as to who got into his Hall of Fame:

Roy Halladay
Todd Helton
Andruw Jones
Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
Andy Pettitte
Larry Walker

Pudge would not vote for Pete Rose, but would vote for Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 22 – Josh Fogg

Mariano Rivera
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Edgar Martinez
Sammy Sosa
Larry Walker
Curt Schilling
Manny Ramirez
Mike Mussina
Todd Helton

Josh would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Roy Halladay
Andruw Jones

Josh would vote for both Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 21 – Eric O’Flaherty

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Curt Schilling
Roy Halladay
Billy Wagner
Edgar Martinez
Mariano Rivera
Mike Mussina
Larry Walker
Fred McGriff

“Bonds and Clemens were both Hall of Fame worthy before testing began in 2005 and, in my opinion, would have been Hall of Famers with or without steroids. There was no testing before 2005 and, for the most part, the league looked the other way while guys were obviously juicing and using stimulants. There is no real or fair way to tell what was put in any player’s body before 2005, or even to know how much it helped them on the field. Greenies are pure magic. I don’t know about steroids, but I can’t discriminate one PED vs another. PEDs are a part of the games history. I also can’t claim a moral high ground because I’m pretty sure I would have done whatever it takes to stay in the game during any era in which I played. Having said that, I don’t think Bonds or Clemens should get an induction ceremony and I think that their plaques should mention steroid use. If you exclude anyone that ever used any type of PED … you would have a long, long eviction list for the Hall of Fame. Let the convicted PED players into the Hall of Fame, for the fans and for the sport, but instead strip from them joy and the ability to celebrate the honor that clean players with great character get to enjoy upon induction. This could be called ‘a silent induction.'”

“I completely disagree with the logic that Edgar shouldn’t get in because he was a DH. There are plenty of ‘designated pitchers’ in the Hall of Fame. Coming from a career relief pitcher, if ANY reliever gets into the hallowed hall, then the best DH of all-time gets in too. (Sorry Big Papi , I’m biased – I may have faced you, but I grew up watching Edgar Martinez).”

Eric would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Todd Helton
Scott Rolen
Andruw Jones

Eric would vote for Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

“Pete Rose is the all-time hits leader, he belongs in Hall of Fame, period. He should not get a ceremony and his plaque should tell the story of both his career accomplishments as well as his shameful gambling exploits. Shoeless Joe was obviously on pace for Hall of Fame career, but was involved in one of the most infamous scandals in baseball history. I feel like the Hall of Fame should tell the history of the game positive and negative, so in my opinion, he is in whether he was involved or not.”

Ballot No. 20 – Ryan Spilborghs

Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
Larry Walker
Todd Helton
Edgar Martinez
Roy Halladay
Mariano Rivera
Curt Schilling
Scott Rolen
Omar Vizquel

“I’m on the fence for Kent. Bonds and Clemens were two of my favorite players as a kid – they are they are the best of the era. They probably should be in the Hall of Fame, they cheated, but I think others already in the Hall of Fame took something and made it; plenty of guys have cheated, I flip-flop on those guys all the time, but I just can’t vote for steroid users.”

Spilly would not vote for Pete Rose and abstains from voting on Shoeless Joe Jackson.

“Joe Jackson is interesting to me because, by all accounts I’ve researched and read, he was innocent. Even grand jury testimonials don’t have him ever admitting to any sort of fix. I don’t think Joe Jackson violates Rule 21 (The Official Professional Baseball Rules Book, Rule 21(d)(1)(2)(3), P. 100), Pete Rose does violate Rule 21. But I’m also biased due to Rose’s off-field transgressions. From all the information I can find, Joe Jackson was strong armed to uphold a rule.”

Ballot No. 19 – Brad Ziegler

Roy Halladay
Todd Helton
Edgar Martinez
Fed McGriff
Mike Mussina
Mariano Rivera
Curt Schilling
Omar Vizquel
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker

Ziegler would not vote for Pete Rose, but would vote for Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 18 – John Baker

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Mike Mussina
Edgar Martinez
Scott Rolen
Larry Walker
Mariano Rivera
Curt Schilling
Jeff Kent

“Many people seem to think that PED use, or allegations of PED use, should disqualify players from Hall of Fame eligibility. I disagree completely with that logic. Bonds and Clemens are two of the most valuable players ever, both are in the top-10 of Baseball Reference’s WAR rankings. To assume that they were the only ones ambitious enough to search for every competitive advantage is ridiculous. How many steroid infused fastballs did Bonds hit into the water or seats? How many artificially muscled sluggers did Roger Clemens strike out? As an aside, see comments by Tom House or Bob Gibson to get an actual understanding of the older generation’s views on PEDs.”

“My point here is that before steroid testing, the playing field was as level as it has ever been. ‘Level playing fields,’ what do you mean? The Hall of Fame has many players that, due to the overwhelmingly racist nature of the early twentieth century, never even competed against black, Latino, or Asian players. I just checked the WAR list again and Josh Gibson was nowhere to be found. How level was the playing field before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier?”

“When we don’t take into account the most recent understandings of performance (sabermetrics, analytics, etc.), we are put in the unenviable position of relying on our perceptions and ultimately our emotions. Think about the difference in perception between specialists like Edgar Martinez and Mariano Rivera. Because of Mo, I associate the Metallica classic, ‘Enter Sandman’ with the inevitable end of a high stakes baseball game. Despite a higher WAR, more actual time on the field, and remarkable numbers against Mariano, I’ve never heard Edgar Martinez spoken about in the same language. Even when I think about Edgar and Rivera, and despite knowing the numbers, my emotions try to tell me Rivera was a more valuable player! I wonder how many others asked to vote have taken note of their own personal biases and recognized that the dissonance they experience probably comes from their misunderstanding of what actually happened, as brought to light by modern statistical analysis.”

“In the vein of science, let’s get anecdotal with a personal, biased, anecdote. Here is a Larry Walker story: In 2004, I was playing for the Midland Rockhounds (The A’s AA Texas League Affiliate). We were in Oklahoma playing against the Tulsa Drillers. Two Rockies, Larry Walker and Preston Wilson, were there on a rehab assignment. Larry Walker came up to the plate for his at-bat in the bottom of the first inning, looked at me (I was catching) and said, ‘Well, let’s see how this goes, I haven’t even swung a bat yet today.’ Interesting, I thought, as I signaled for a fastball. I picked the low, first pitch out of the dirt. Mr. Walker stood totally still, like a statue, and let the pitch pass low. He had no intent of swinging, as he didn’t even take a stride. He was clearly tracking the first pitch. To everyone’s surprise, AJ, the umpire, called the pitch a strike! I almost did a double-take! What a terrible call. Without missing a beat, Mr. Walker looked back at the umpire and asked a question worthy of a Hall of Fame selection, ‘On the swing?’ He hit an opposite field homer on the next pitch, like only a Hall of Fame caliber player could, on his first full swing of the day. But that isn’t the reason he is on my list, he is on my list because the numbers say he should be on my list. To quote the one of a kind Jason Marquis, in the most New York accent possible, ‘Check tha numbaz.'”

John would also consider voting for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Todd Helton
Andruw Jones
Manny Ramirez
Gary Sheffield
Billy Wagner
Fred McGriff

“This ten vote thing is dumb, stop attempting to limit the recognition of greatness.”

John abstains from voting on Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

“I have no idea what really happened with the Black Sox and Shoeless Joe so I can’t muster an opinion. When it comes to Charlie Hustle, when I read that he still bets on games, I don’t know what to think. My gut says I am on a no vote on the most prolific hitter in history. But, even though that is my feeling, I am going to abstain from a vote.”

Ballot No. 17 – Dallas Braden

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Edgar Martinez
Todd Helton
Mike Mussina
Manny Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
Curt Schilling
Scott Rolen

Dallas would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Fred McGriff
Larry Walker
Billy Wagner

Dallas would vote for both Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

“Give me Charlie Hustle too. It’s a museum to honor the game’s greatest players. Sometimes those people aren’t ‘babysitter material.’ Go ahead and tell THAT story too. There are a few individuals with ‘alleged’ attached to their name for one reason or another who are already nice and comfy in The Hall. Never saw the kid play, but if Charlie Hustle gets the nod, Joe and his shoeless ass go too.”

Ballot No. 16 – Anonymous former Major League ballplayer

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Todd Helton
Andy Pettitte
Mariano Rivera
Sammy Sosa
Gary Sheffield
Fred McGriff

“You can’t erase what happened, MLB knew what was going on during this time and a lot of guys were doing something. These guys, clean or not, were the elite.”

Ballplayer would vote for both Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

“Pete Rose and Joe Jackson should be in the Hall of Fame – it’s the Hall of Fame not the Hall of Nice Guys.”

Ballot No. 15 – Jacque Jones

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Manny Ramierz
Mariano Rivera
Curt Schilling
Gary Sheffield

Jacque would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Sammy Sosa

Jacque would vote for both Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 14 – Jason Hirsh

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Todd Helton
Andruw Jones
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mariano Rivera
Curt Schilling
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker

“I think there are some no-brainers on this list and some guys I would vote for because their time on the ballot is nearing its end and they deserve to be there.”

Hirsh would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Roy Halladay
Jeff Kent
Mike Mussina
Scott Rolen

“It’s a strange feeling for me having grown up admiring most of these men, watching them play through their hay-days and even getting to face some on the field, albeit in the twilight of their careers, and now try and help decide the best of the best. I hoped one day, my name would have been among these giants but, like many, my career was not so glorious. Every name on this list deserves admiration for a career worthy of this honor, and I am grateful for being allowed to voice my opinion.”

Hirsh votes yes on Rose and abstains on Shoeless Joe Jackson as it is indeterminable just how guilty or not guilty he was.

“I’ve always viewed the Hall of Fame as the greatest players to ever play the game, revered for their performances on the field. I understand the ‘character clause’ which BWAA will invoke as will other players. Although the audacity of what Pete did rightfully deserved criticism and consequences, he is still the hit king of baseball and deserves to be in the hall based solely on his on-field performance.”

“The stories have been told and movies have been made about Shoeless Joe. Unfortunately, I don’t know enough about his career to make an educated decision about his eligibility. I will have to study up on his legacy and career and get back with an appropriate answer.”

Ballot No. 13 – Curt Schilling

“I did not vote, nor would I ever, for anyone who cheated.”

Roy Halladay
Todd Helton
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
Mariano Rivera
Scott Rolen
Omar Vizquel
Larry Walker

“Roy Halladay was the epitome of a Hall of Fame pitcher and person. I would argue Todd Helton was one of the best first basemen – offensively and defensively – in the last 50 years (he also hit like 1.199 off me). Edgar Martinez is the second best designated hitter of all-time and should already be in the Hall of Fame. Fred McGriff spent at least a decade as one of the most impactful sluggers in the game – that is what the Hall is about (Dale Murphy should be in for the exact same reason – plus character). What Mike Mussina did where he did it makes him a lock. Scott Rolen is the best defensive third basemen of all-time and fwas a middle of the order bat. He showed up, played the game hard and played it right – he was better than most players on the field every day. Omar Vizquel is top-five defensive shortstop of all-time and was not an offensive liability. The Hall does not recognize defense in a meaningful way and if Mazeroski gets in on his glove than Omar HAS to be in. Larry Walker was a five-tool Hall of Fame talent BEFORE he went to Colorado. He could beat you so many ways from day one until the day he retired.”

Schill also listed the following players as fringe candidates:

Andruw Jones
Jeff Kent
Billy Wagner
Lance Berkman

“Andruw Jones was the best defensive centerfielder I have ever seen. Jeff Kent is a horribly underrated second basemen. Billy Wagner is one of the premier closers for his entire career. Lance Berkman – maybe I am biased, but the numbers are better than people think. Career .293/.406/.537 as a switch hitter who crushed from both sides. By comparison, .298/.421/.557, those are Mickey Mantle’s numbers. Berkman was .317/.417/.532 in the postseason, Mantle was .257/.374/.535. Six top-10 MVP finishes and per James’s numbers he is on the cusp in many ways. He was also a very underrated baserunner and defender in my opinion.”

Schilling votes no on Pete Rose and yes on Shoeless Joe Jackson.

“No on Pete Rose, I know Pete, love him to death. I also believe that he bet for AND against his team both as a player and a manger.”

Ballot No. 12 – Gary Bennett

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Todd Helton
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Mariano Rivera
Scott Rolen
Curt Schilling
Gary Sheffield
Larry Walker

Bennett would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Billy Wagner
Sammy Sosa
Roy Halladay

Bennett isn’t totally decided on Pete Rose or Shoeless Joe Jackson, but leans no on both.

“It’s tough to say yes on Rose, everyone who has player professionally knows that there is no gray area if one chooses to place a bet with their own team involved. That being said, Rose was one of my favorite ballplayers as a kid – he is still one of my favorite baseball players ever.”

“Shoeless Joe’s World Series numbers sure do not make it look like he was in on the fix – that being said, I don’t know enough of the 1919 details to vote yes.”

Ballot No. 11 – Anonymous former Philadelphia Phillies ballplayer

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mariano Rivera
Curt Schilling
Billy Wagner
Michael Young
Todd Helton

“I do not know enough on Walker to make a decision right now – I’d consider doing the research and voting for him, though, if my say meant anything.”

Ballplayer votes yes on Pete Rose and does not particularly care about whether Shoeless Joe Jackson gets inducted.

Ballot No. 10 – Anonymous former Los Angeles Dodgers ballplayer

Todd Helton
Andruw Jones
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Mariano Rivera
Omar Vizquel
Larry Walker

“I played with Jeff Kent. He is the most underrated, hard nosed player, hated…and I mean hated to lose.”

Ballplayer would vote for both Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 9 – Bucky Jacobsen

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mariano Rivera
Edgar Martinez
Manny Ramirez
Roy Halladay
Fred McGriff
Curt Schilling
Larry Walker
Jeff Kent

“As much as I dislike the skewed numbers by those who used PEDs, specifically because I was trying to compete with my natural (and very limited) abilities, I still consider the fact that players were taking them both on the bump and in the box – so it’s not as big of an advantage as many think. There is no real distinct advantage to a pitcher or a hitter who is using – just a disadvantage to those of us who are playing clean.”

Buck votes yes on Rose and abstains on Shoeless Joe Jackson as it is indeterminable just how guilty or not guilty he was.

“Pete Rose should be in, he messed up, but he wasn’t trying to harm the game and I don’t think that he did.”

Ballot No. 8 – Geoff Blum

Barry Bonds
Rogers Clemens
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
Manny Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
Curt Schilling
Gary Sheffield
Larry Walker

“Gary Sheffield scared the shit out of me when I was at third.”

Blummer is undecided on Pete Rose, but would vote for Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 7 – Anonymous former New York Mets ballplayer

Roy Halladay
Todd Helton
Jeff Kent
Mike Mussina
Manny Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
Gary Sheffield
Curt Schilling
Omar Vizquel
Billy Wagner

Ballplayer votes yes on Pete Rose and no on Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 6 – Anonymous former Milwaukee Brewers ballplayer

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
Mariano Rivera
Sammy Sosa
Curt Schilling
Jeff Kent
Roy Halladay

Ballplayer would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Larry Walker
Gary Sheffield

Ballplayer votes no on Pete Rose and abstains from picking on Shoeless Joe Jackson as it is indeterminable just how guilty or not guilty he was.

“I want to believe Pete Rose bet only on himself, but until that is proven, I say no.”

Ballot No. 5 – Danny Graves

Mariano Rivera
Fred McGriff
Mike Mussina
Andy Pettitte
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Sammy Sosa
Manny Ramirez
Gary Sheffield
Omar Vizquel

Gravy would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Roy Halladay
Edgar Martinez
Curt Schilling
Todd Helton
Andruw Jones
Jeff Kent
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker

Gravy does not think he can offer a fair assessment on Rose, given that he is a former Red, and does not believe Shoeless Joe Jackson’s numbers warrant induction.

Ballot No. 4 – Anonymous former Anaheim Angels ballplayer

Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Mariano Rivera
Edgar Martinez
Larry Walker
Sammy Sosa
Manny Ramirez
Curt Schilling
Billy Wagner
Mike Mussina

Ballplayer would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Gary Sheffield
Andy Pettitte
Fred McGriff
Roy Halladay
Todd Helton

“Ted Simmons should already be in the Hall of Fame, too.”

Ballplayer votes yes for both Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson.

Ballot No. 3 – Kevin Frandsen

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Roy Halladay
Jeff Kent
Mike Mussina
Manny Ramirez
Mariano Rivera
Curt Schilling
Fred McGriff
Larry Walker

Franny would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Omar Vizquel
Edgar Martinez
Sammy Sosa
Gary Sheffield

“Larry Walker had insane numbers playing at Coors, but Coors NEVER inflated a ballplayer’s instincts. Everyone that played with or against him will say he was one of the best instinctual ballplayers around. Mussina – just look at his numbers, those are Hall of Fame worthy.”

Franny votes no on Pete Rose and abstains from picking on Shoeless Joe Jackson as it is indeterminable just how guilty or not guilty he was.

Ballot No. 2 – Anonymous former Atlanta Braves ballplayer

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mariano Rivera
Manny Ramirez
Fred McGriff
Jeff Kent
Sammy Sosa
Edgar Martinez
Gary Sheffield
Larry Walker

“My vote is based on ballplayers in their era that dominated their position for a period of time that I consider relevant.”

Ballplayer votes no on Pete Rose – though Rose is one of his all-time favorite ballplayers, he said he cannot vote for him as he broke the cardinal rule – and is undecided on Shoeless Joe Jackson based on evidence available.

Ballot No. 1 – Kevin Youkilis

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Mariano Rivera
Manny Ramirez
Sammy Sosa
Edgar Martinez
Fred McGriff
Roy Halladay
Curt Schilling
Larry Walker

Youk would also vote for the following ballplayers outside of his top-10:

Jeff Kent
Billy Wagner
Gary Sheffield
Mike Mussina
Andy Pettitte

Youk did not comment on Pete Rose or Shoeless Joe Jackson.

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