I will make this clear: interceptions are exciting. As a stat, though, they are misrepresented and over-hyped. Interceptions are the Undrafted White Guy on Hard Knocks of defensive stats. Analogous to the win-loss record for pitchers in baseball — it just doesn’t say much about the player in question.
Panthers at Redskins, Oct. 14, 2018 (Keith Allison, CCA-SA 2.0)
NFL head coaches are constantly talking about winning the “turnover battle,” placing a very high correlation between low turnover rates and victories. I am totally on board with that. It is very difficult to score more points than your opponent if you are routinely relinquishing offensive opportunities via lost fumbles and interceptions. But, here’s my gripe: fumbles are ostensibly the same thing as interceptions, yet we value them VERY differently, and for no statistically relevant reason.
When it comes to defensive backs (and especially cornerbacks), the interception is the star. Tackles don’t really matter. For some odd reason, forced and recovered fumbles don’t seem to matter much, either. We are in a vast Analytical Information Age, and we still use interception totals as a primary tool for ranking and rewarding cornerbacks.
In 2018, cornerbacks Kyle Fuller and Xavien Howard tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (7). Both made the Pro Bowl. Yet, prior to this season, Sports Illustrated/MMQB ranked neither player among their top-ten at the position.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) also left both players off their top-ten.
CBSsports.com threw the Pro Bowl pair a bone, ranking Fuller 9th and Howard 8th.
Sure, these examples are anecdotal and arbitrary, but what is notable is who cracked the top of these lists while NOT finishing among the league leaders in picks.
Of PFF’s top-ten, only four players finished in the top-50 in interceptions. That quartet grabbed just three picks apiece, good for a 37-man tie at 18th in the NFL.
This is a good place to stop and re-focus the argument…
I know what you’re thinking, because I’m thinking it, too.
I am not really breaking any new ground here — obviously, some of the top cornerbacks in the NFL don’t get a lot of interceptions because they don not get a lot of errant passes thrown their way — or many passes at all, for that matter, among the game’s most elite. PFF makes their bones on digging deep and disregarding popular “counting stats.” I’m not trying to introduce new statistics — I will leave that to Ryan — or change the way the pros grade defensive backs; there are way more intelligent and generally sober professionals for that. My message is for the NFL:
Stop rewarding guys with high interception totals!
In 2018, three of the top four interceptors made the Pro Bowl. In 2017, six of the top seven made it. In 2016, seven of the top ten. In 2015, eight of the top twelve… you get the idea. The league’s top finishers on the interceptions list are routinely given automatic consideration for the Pro Bowl. And Pro Bowl appearances lead to actual NFL dollars, via clauses in existing contracts or perceived value for future deals.
At the very least, defensive backs should have their top counting stat expanded into turnovers in general. If the NFL is rewarding outcome with the interception, they should value forced and recovered fumbles in the same way — I and many others could argue even more so! It still would not do much in terms of grading value, but it’s a definite improvement.
And if you still don’t hate the interception stat like I do, consider:
In 2018, The 7-9 Dolphins finished first in the AFC in interceptions, while surrendering the fourth-most yards and points. The 7-8-1 Browns were fourth in the AFC in picks, but surrendered the third-most yards.
The interception is cool, but it should NOT be king. Same goes for Budweiser…
Let’s get one thing out of the way from the start… it is very important:
There is a major difference between a RUNNING quarterback and a MOBILE quarterback.
Both Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers have carefully picked their spots during their careers, and running is secondary to their primary weapon… their arm. Former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s primary weapon was his running ability. He was by far the best running quarterback in the league, but it wasn’t enough to make up for his shortcomings.
Colin Kaepernick throwing to Anquan Boldin at Wembley Stadium in London. (PD; Keenan Kunst.)
Kap threw just 30 touchdowns in his final 30 games in the NFL. Last year alone, NINE quarterbacks threw for 30 or more touchdowns. His rushing numbers were impressive, but he tied for 3rd among quarterbacks in fumbles his final season, despite starting just 11 games.
That year, Kap had the best TD/INT ratio in football (16/4; 2016)… and that’s where the flattery stops. In Total QBR, he ranked 23rd — Behind Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemien, and Sam Bradford, respectively. Kap, unsurprisingly, led the league in clutch-weighted rushing points added over average (22.9), but Tyrod Taylor was really the only other running quarterback game in town. On the flip side, Kap was dead last in clutch-weighted pass points added over avg, and it wasn’t close. Kap was -0.3, while Case Keenum was second at +10.2.
Kap was 17th in quarterback rating, but DEAD LAST in passing yards per game. Reality TV Star Jay Cutler averaged almost 30 more yards per contest.
Kap was 1-10 that season. 3-16 over his last two seasons combined.
So… the case against running quarterbacks.
NFL quarterback rushing leaders over the past 10 seasons (2010-2019):
Cam Newton
Russell Wilson
Aaron Rodgers
Kaepernick
Alex Smith
Mike Vick
Tyrod Taylor
Blake Bortles
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Robert Griffin III
Aside from Wilson and Rodgers, who have both cut back their rushing attempts in recent years, the rest of the pack is just 13-18 in their collective playoff careers (ironically, Kap leads this group with four wins).
With results like that, it’s curious that the previous two top overall draft picks were undersized quarterbacks with a strong penchant for running the football — Baker Mayfield in 2018 and Kyler Murray this year.
Every active quarterback on the list above has either drastically cut back on running or is currently hurt and/or backing up another quarterback.
The next five aren’t any better:
Andrew Luck
Marcus Mariota
Lamar Jackson
Ryan Tannehil
Andy Dalton
Luck retired this season due to injuries, Mariota was benched for Tannehill, who was let go by Miami, and Dalton was just benched after going winless in his last 10 starts… Lamar Jackson, an MVP candidate, is the only quarterback in that entire group of 15 that is successfully winning in the NFL by running the football. Why? Because he hasn’t played long enough.
It’s really that simple.
To assume Lamar Jackson will buck the trend would be a mighty leap of faith, for which there is no precedent.
The list of inactive quarterbacks with multiple seasons of 80 or more rushing attempts since 1980: Kap, Cam (technically active), Vick, Randall Cunningham, Kordell Stewart, Steve McNair, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, and Vince Young.
That’s a ‘Who’s Who’ of unfulfilled potential behind center. Cam leads the 80-rush club with eight such seasons, and, if he ever plays again, it will be fair to wonder if we only got to see one good season from the big man. It doesn’t feel right that he threw for over 24 touchdowns just once, but it’s true. Of the 12 active quarterbacks with over 100 career interceptions, Cam has the third-worst interception percentage (2.71), behind Ryan Fitzpatrick and Eli Manning. When he was at his best, he was MVP of the league in 2015. Unfortunately, that style of play has proven unsustainable.
When Russell Wilson retires, he’ll likely be the most accomplished running quarterback in NFL history. But, it will be his transition to a MOBILE quarterback that will ultimately delay that retirement five or so years and likely earn him a spot in Canton.
All of this being said, I still think Kapernick — a running quarterback if there ever was one— should be signed. We just have to keep it real when it comes to his strengths and weaknesses.
Said NFL expert Chris Wesseling in 2014:
“A one-read passer with accuracy and touch issues, Kaepernick is on pace for a franchise record 51 sacks despite persistent accusations that he flees the pocket prematurely. That speaks to a confused signal-caller, being instructed to go through his progressions but still unable to make the correct pre- and post-snap reads.”
He wasn’t a good passer when he was playing, so it’s unlikely that facet of his game has improved. Fortunately, Kap’s unique situation is the exception to the rule. Team’s won’t be looking to sign him to be a franchise quarterback. He would merely be a quick fix. And a running quarterback in a short term situation works really well. In “reckless abandon mode,” Cunningham, Vick, and Cam were all nearly unstoppable. That’s what you want in a backup/replacement quarterback.
As for Mayfield, Murray, and Jackson? Forget everything else — if they can’t throw the damn ball, they’re screwed.
Two weeks ago, I talked about judging quarterbacks based on the big picture; that’s a process that can take years to play out. In Dak Prescott’s case, the stakes are high right now — Dallas has to decide whether or not to pay him with the big (Cow)boys, and gamblers/fantasy players are betting more than they can afford on Dak and “America’s Team” every week.
The best anyone can do is stockpile information. In Dak’s case, there is plenty, but it’s conflicting. He’s a streaky player who has been prone to awful stretches of mediocrity. It gets tricky when there is a lot less to go on. In the modern instant-access media world, whenever there is a shortage of information, there is a tendency to exaggerate short term trends. In which case, it is all the more important to recognize the difference between hysteria and historical.
Two weeks ago, Dak was an MVP candidate and the Cowboys were 3-1. It was easy to buy into the hype, but there was a mountain of data to suggest it was just a short term trend.
HISTORICAL
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is an enigma. He has gotten a lot of praise of late, though it is based entirely on just one good start. The circumstances behind it amplified its importance — suddenly replacing Eli Manning, who had started 232 of New York’s previous 233 games — but it was still just a single game. Jones threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 2 win over Tampa Bay, but has tossed six interceptions and just three touchdowns in three games since. For better or worse, he’s been the poster boy for knee-jerk hysteria.
Six months ago, Jones was the joke of the NFL Draft. Most experts had him slated to go much later than sixth overall to the Giants. Without even throwing a professional pass, he had the “bust” tag. After a decent preseason and good first outing, he was suddenly garnering Tom Brady comparisons. I blame Twitter… and the countless iterations of those two-man bickering programs that dominate sports talk TV.
In reality, Jones is probably something in between — a young, physically unremarkable quarterback who is going to struggle this entire season. Just as most rookie quarterbacks tend to do.
The last great quarterback out of Duke is currently 85 years old, and three of his first four games have been ROUGH. If you get early comparisons to Tom Brady, you have to earn it.
HYSTERIA
Road games, single season:
Player A — 29 TD, 4 INT, 2,511 yards passing
Player B — 28 TD, 5 INT, 2,656 yards passing
Player C — 31 TD, 6 INT, & 2,659 yards passing
Player A is Tom Brady in 2007, the season in which Randy Moss hauled in 23 of his 50 touchdown passes.
Player B is Peyton Manning in 2013, when he tossed an NFL record 55 touchdowns.
Player C is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in 2018. Crazy.
Patrick Mahomes with servicemen on Military Appreciation Day, 2018; Photo Credit: PD; U.S. Air National Guard Master Sgt. Michael Crane
When it comes to Mahomes, the small sample size doesn’t really matter. He threw the second-highest single season touchdown total in his first full season in the NFL (his MLB-style rookie year, if you will). That doesn’t happen by chance – as I suggest with Jones.
Mahomes accounted for exactly four touchdowns per game on the road in 2018 (31 passing, 1 rushing). Eli Manning, through 16 NFL seasons, has only seven career four-touchdown road games. Mahomes just turned 24 years old and he already has six such road performances under his belt. Hall of Famer Bob Griese scored four touchdowns just four times over his entire career, in both home and away games.
A true career road warrior, Mahomes is 9-3 away from Arrowhead, with 38 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions, and a 116.6 QB rating. For added perspective, Drew Brees has played 19 NFL seasons, and has thrown for more yards than any quarterback in history… but he’s never completed a season with a QB rating over 115.7.
He’s not so bad at home, either, with 3,406 yards, 26 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, and a 106.4 QB rating, good for an 8-3 record.
When it comes to Dak Prescott, the Cowboys know they have a good, but streaky quarterback. They must consider all factors when they decide whether or not to pay him more than anyone else who has ever played the position.
With Daniel Jones, the Giants need to just hang on and see what happens. Meanwhile, fans and experts alike would be best to relax with the week-by-week exaggerations.
Patrick Mahomes… enjoy the ride. The best quarterback in football is here, and he is not slowing down. Of course, after three straight lackluster performances, some in sports media have proclaimed that Mahomes and the Chiefs have been “solved.”
Following Week 3 of the NFL season, the Chiefs and Cowboys were each off to an undefeated start, 3-0 a piece. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes was the odds-on favorite to win the season MVP (+175, via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott was the first runner-up (+800). That was just a week ago.
Week 4, the Chiefs looked shaky in Detroit, but came out with the win, and Mahomes padded his MVP lead (currently at -110). Prescott, on the other hand, had a clunker in New Orleans, losing 12-10 to the Saints, and he’s now +2000 to take home the hardware at season’s end. My question — we knew this was coming, so why do we keep falling in love with Dak Prescott?
Public perception is one thing — the media blitz during and following a single weekend of pro football probably has a greater seismic effect on the populous than an entire NHL season. As both fans and analysts, it’s only natural to overreact to small-but-exciting sample sizes. What’s strange is that Vegas seems to be hopping aboard these hype trains as well.
In Major League Baseball, it’s much easier to quantify a “hot streak.” If we’re to assume a starting pitcher will have about 30 starts during the regular season, three good outings in a row would not be nearly large enough a sample size to determine if it’s an aberration. But, even though three games represents a much greater chunk of an NFL season (18.75 versus 10 percent of 30 starts), the same principle — and frankly common sense — should apply. Just because the NFL has a 16-game season does not mean we should lower the standard for analysis. It’s easier with baseball; it’s an experiment that’s being run about 10 times more than the NFL in a single season. So, why oh why did we elevate Dak Prescott so quickly to the NFL’s elite? If we stretch out the sample size, there is plenty of evidence to conclude otherwise.
Overall, Prescott is a good quarterback. He had a fantastic rookie season in 2016, going 13-3 with 23 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions. His body of work, to that point, was historic. Since then, though, we have gathered a lot more information. After three full seasons in the league, that 23-touchdown mark is still his career high. In each season, he’s averaged fewer than 250 passing yards per game. His immediate regression was actually a lot greater than most may remember:
Through Prescott’s first 33 NFL games:
First 11 games — 257.7 YPG, 18 TD, 2 INT
Second 11 games — 205.3 YPG, 19 TD, 6 INT
Third 11 games — 188.0 YPG, 8 TD, 9 INT
Since (19 games) — 255.7 YPG, 31 TD, 11 INT; did things get worse before they got better?
He had a 14-game stretch, from Nov. 2017 to Oct. 2018, during which he averaged just 189.3 passing yards per game. Reality TV star Jay Cutler averaged 190.4 passing yards-per-game his final 14 games in the league, and one of those games he threw just TWO passes.
What’s worse is that Prescott had just 15 touchdowns during that 14-game stretch, with 15 interceptions. It was brutal. Of course, I’m categorizing him as a “good” quarterback, so there was certainly a turn around.
In 14 games since, Dak has averaged 277.4 PYPG, with 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Maybe it’s nitpicking to mention that his three best games during that stretch came against the statistically worst pass defense (455 yards against Philadelphia) and fifth-worst pass defense (405 yards and 387 yards versus the New York Football Giants) in the NFC in 2018…
One can draw their own conclusions as to the value added to the Cowboys by having Dak Prescott under center going forward. But, you have to consume the whole pie — cherries, Jay Cutler bits, and all.
Next week, I won’t be so negative… I’ll even contradict myself a bit and attempt to show how Patrick Mahomes’s comparatively short career has made large sample sizes irrelevant.
In 2012, Major League Baseball implemented the second wild card, modifying a postseason system that had stood since 1994 – though not realized until 1995, due to the 1994-95 strike. The current format is largely preferred over the previous one (at least by you guys) but that does not necessarily mean it is the perfect format. To be continued…
Baseball has seen a steady decline in attendance since 2007’s record-high of 32,696-per-game; this season’s 28,148-per-game is the lowest since 2002. Robert Manfred and Major League Baseball have combated the drop in attendance with immaterial “pace-of-play” rule changes (e.g. making the intentional walk automatic, saving a whopping 1.46 pitches-per-game since its implementation in 2017). In addition, the “Juiced Ball Era” – intentional or not – is here. (And if you don’t believe me, Dr. Meredith Wills has proven it in her draw your own conclusion piece for The Athletic). As a result, this season has outstripped the record set in 2017 by 671 home runs – an increase of 11 percent in just two seasons.
After remaining virtually stagnant between 2014 and 2015, attendance has fallen every season since. A trend that, if it continues, could see MLB lose nearly another 500 fans-per-game in 2020.
My own conclusion: After losing nearly 20 percent of its fans during the 1994-95 lockout, baseball bounced back because of the longball, made possible by the “Steroid Era.” Single-season home run record chases were exciting and drove attendance. As best as I can tell, Bud Selig not only needed, but enabled the “Steroid Era;” as a result, he became a Hall-of-Famer, while the game’s real heroes (McGwire, Bonds et al). became scapegoats – blackballed by the very game they saved. With steadily-dropping attendance, Rob Manfred is going back to Selig’s playbook. However, with testing in place, he can no longer lean on the broad shoulders of “juiced” players. With no hope of another “Steroid Era,” he has instead enabled the “Juiced Ball Era,” trying to bring fans back to the game the same way that Selig did – with the longball. Different song, same dance. Selig juiced the ballplayers; Manfred juiced the balls. (Now one has to wonder how you scapegoat the ball…)
Unfortunately for the Commissioner, fans are wiser now, and “juiced” longballs have failed to impress. Since I don’t believe shaving a few minutes off a game is going to work either, what is the solution?
I have a number of theories and strategies that could be implemented to combat this. Examples include limiting revenue sharing to force teams to compete (think England’s Premiere League) or abolishing interleague play, which would help to balance strength of schedule and reinvigorate old rivalries. However, for the purpose of this piece, I will talk about just one: expanding the postseason.
This model is best-suited for a situation in which Major League Baseball adds two expansion teams and reverts back to two divisions. In lieu of that, I propose that the top two teams in each division be granted a postseason berth, while the final playoff spots be awarded to each league’s two best remaining records.
From here, teams will be seeded No. 1 through No. 8 (think NHL). Unlike the hockey postseason, however, seeding will be based strictly on team record, NOT where a team finishes in their division.
Structured this way, the 2019 postseason bracket would look like this:
How could a first-round matchup between the Yankees and the Red Sox possibly be good for the game?
Note that this system requires abolishing the single-game elimination wildcard round, utilizing single-game playoffs only for tiebreakers (i.e. Game No. 163, or more, if necessary). While I concede that single-elimination games can make for great baseball, I think the benefit of including three more playoff teams in each league far outweighs the cost. Besides, I personally believe postseason baseball was meant to be played in a series, not a single game.
The first round would be a three-game series played on three consecutive days entirely at the higher-seeded ballpark, providing “home field advantage.” Note that, compared to the current system, this adds a maximum of two additional days to the postseason. The second round would be a 2-2-1 five-game series, a setup analogous to the current division series. The third round would remain the League Championship Series, but shift the current 2-3-2 setup to a 2-2-1-1-1 format, such as those used in the NHL and NBA. In the event that the series goes beyond a four-game sweep, this adds one extra day. Finally, the World Series would follow the same format as the LCS, again, with the possibility of one additional day.
The Expanded Playoff Payoff…
After coming down to the wire, the Indians – despite winning 93 games – will watch the postseason from home. Expanding the playoffs would ensure that 93-win teams are not left out. In addition, it gives teams (and fan bases) that would otherwise cash in their chips a reason to stay invested deep into the season. So what if a team is 69-68 at the end of August or just below .500 at the trade deadline? There are still potential No. 7 and No. 8 seeds to fill.
In theory, this would keep the ballparks fuller deeper into the season, as even mediocre teams have a fighting chance at postseason glory. Moreover, it enables mid-level teams to remain competitive throughout the grueling 162-game schedule; perhaps, in turn, drawing even more fans and maintaining them for the duration of the season. This will also make teams far less inclined to offload their big league talent to front-running clubs, which only furthers the imbalance of power.
This season is breaking the back of MLB. With a record FOUR teams winning at least 100 games, baseball has experienced a paradigm shift to something not unlike what is seen in the NBA. Some teams have become so dominant, staking sovereign claims over certain divisions and the standings in general. The game is far less competitive that it once was; it is top-heavy… even if, like the juiced ball, that is something Commissioner Manfred denies.
Fans need to start caring again, and let’s face it, a losing record and guaranteed elimination doesn’t usually fill a ballpark. With this system, the playoffs would include more than just Cleveland. We would see the Mets, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Red Sox, and even the Rangers (despite their less-than-stellar 78-84 record). Perhaps an expanded postseason, rather than automatic walks or the removal of left-handed specialists, will help grow the game back to what it once was: our National Pastime.
Just like preseason football, Summer Sundays accompanied by brunch are, well, fine. Mimosas, Artisanal cheeses, polite conversation… but it is no substitute for the real thing — too many beers, fried foods, and questionably-legal gambling over a full-slot of NFL Sunday games.
One week ago tonight, the Chicago Bears took on the Green Bay Packers, kicking off the NFL’s 100th season. These things are difficult to nail down, and the 1920 inaugural American Professional Football Association (APFA) season was crude by today’s standards, but, unlike the National Association to MLB, it still counts. It is fitting that Chicago hosted, as the team’s most storied figure had an incredibly significant influence on wrestling the nation’s attention from baseball to football.
ForgetIron Mike Ditka. George Halas, legendary founder, player, owner, and coach of the Bears, was a Chicago football wunderkind. He revolutionized the game, guiding his Monsters of the Midway in the 1940s to complete domination, almost 50 years before Da Bears would shuffle their way into the cultural zeitgeist. Halas perfected the modern T-formation. He won a championship 73-0 over the Redskins in 1940. Without Halas, who knows what the NFL would look like today? It certainly takes a village to build something this mighty, but Halas’ influence was as great any other. And that influence was set in motion by a Rube Marquard fastball in 1919… one year before the NFL would take it’s fateful first step.
Success from Failure
After college, and a stint with the Navy during World War I, Halas jumped straight to the New York Yankees. He was a dynamic multi-sport athlete for the University of Illinois, and baseball was really the only pro game in town. During Spring Training 1919, he roped a reportedly grooved fastball off of would-be Hall of Famer Marquard, but injured his hip trying to leg out a triple. In retrospect, kind of embarrassing that a would-be football Hall of Famer couldn’t slide into third base without requiring physical therapy…
Halas, 1919 Yankees Spring Training (via wiki commons).
He hung in for 22 at-bats that season before being sent to the minors to recover. It turns out, his cup of coffee was the whole damn meal, as the Yankees decided to go in another direction by the time he recovered — they signed some kid named Babe Ruth. Politics, I tell ya…
Halas was crushed, but the man had options. Back then, athletes were revered, but they weren’t making anything remotely close to the millions that get tossed around today. For college football stars and former Yankees, the job market was good.
Consider — Halas and the Bears acquired the NFL’s first ever draft pick in 1936, U of Chicago’s Jay Berwanger. Berwanger never played a down in the NFL. A foam rubber plant made him a better offer and he was perfectly content trading the end zone for a corner office. Rumor has it, he used his Heisman as a door stop. Baller.
By 1920, the 25 year-old retired Yankee was the proud manager of a starch manufacturing plant in Illinois. American Dream: Accomplished.
A.E. Staley was the company’s owner and namesake (still operational today as Tate & Lyle, with $2.7 billion in 2018 revenue). He recruited Halas, hellbent on building a formidable semi-pro football team. Halas’ engineering degree was just icing on the cake.
Not long after, following scheduling calls for his Staleys, Halas was in attendance for the very first conceptual “NFL” meeting — at an auto dealership in Canton, Ohio… you see where this is going? The APFA began play in the fall of 1920.
The inaugural Decatur Staleys, 1920. Halas, front and center (wiki commons).
If You Can’t Beat ‘Em, Copy ‘Em
The NFL — as it was officially named in 1922 — was on constant shaky ground in the early going. The Sultan of Swat had stoked the country’s love affair with baseball, and football was an afterthought. Staley jumped ship (shrewd) and sold his shares to Halas, who renamed the team the Bears. He was copying a winning formula; if thousands gathered to watch little bears play at Wrigley Field, then maybe thousands would also come to watch big bears play at Wrigley.
Halas was also obsessed with finding his Babe. In 1925, the Bears signed Fighting Illini superstar Red Grange, and suddenly the league was legit.
1935; Bears running back Red Grange posturing would-be tackler Joe Zeller in practice (wiki commons).
The NFL had just enough juice to survive through the Great Depression, and Halas never really loosened his grip on the game and team he loved. He won eight championships, maintaining ownership of the team until his death in 1983. To this day, the team is still under family control, helmed by Halas’ daughter Virginia Halas McCaskey.
The NFL generated about $15 billion in revenue in 2018. Major League Baseball garnered just over $10 billion. There is a multitude of reasons for this shift in public favor, but Halas was always there in the early days to nurture its eventual meteoric rise.
There’s a new — though recently played out and incredibly lame — saying: This is everything. Well, that was Halas’ nickname: Mr. Everything. He served in WWI, made the Yankees straight from college, played in the NFL, revolutionized the league, was the first to put the NFL on the radio, broadcasting the Bears-Lions Thanksgiving game nationally in 1934, and even stepped away to serve another four years during WWII, retiring with a Bronze Star and a rank of Captain. George Halas was a legend, and means everything to the NFL.
And lucky for the League, he couldn’t slide for shit.
As I watched the Phillies take on the Mets in the third game of a four-game set, I received a direct message from my friend Wayne Randazzo, who, among other things, is the Mets radio announcer for WCBS Newsradio.
Wayne asked me for some historical perspective into just how good Jeff McNeil has been to begin his short career and to do so using a historical stat: batting average. And, in using batting average, I was able to daisy chain McNeil to Shoeless Joe Jackson.
Wednesday’s game marked just the 130th game of McNeil’s young career, and he finished it with a lifetime batting average of .340. Surely not many ballplayers could have possibly performed at such a high level at such a novice stage in their career…
The last ballplayer to bat at least .340 through his first 130 career games? None other than Ichiro Suzuki. He debuted on April 2, 2001, and would go on to hit .350 over his first 130 games. He retired a .311 career hitter with 3,089 hits and will undoubtedly punch his ticket to Cooperstown the moment he is eligible.
Stats aside: Ichiro singled to center in his tenth career at-bat, raising his lifetime batting average to .300, it never again fell below that mark. He saw 39,095 pitches during his big league career, only 25 of which came while he did not have a batting average of at least .300, two of those were during his first major league plate appearance. Not enough? He could return to baseball and go 0-for-362 and still have a career .300 batting average.
Before Ichiro…
Wade Boggs debuted on April 10, 1982, and he went on to hit .353 over his first 130 games played. Boggs, a career .328 hitter with 3,010 hits, was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2005. I heard he also writes a mean foreword…
Stats aside: Wade Boggs singled to center in his 58th career at-bat, raising his lifetime batting average to .328, it would never fall below that mark. He never batted .400 in a season, but maintained a .401 batting average over a 162 game span from June 9, 1985 to June 6, 1986. His career-best .476 on-base percentage in 1988 is higher than Ty Cobb’s on-base percentage in any of his .400 seasons.
Before Boggsy…
George Watkins debuted on April 15, 1930. He went on to bat .373 over his first 130 big league games but finished with a career .288 batting average and just 925 hits. George, though, could feel it in the air on June 24, 1931, as he mashed a three-homer game with the first two coming off Phillies’ Phil Collins, against whom he hit six of his 73 career home runs – he did not hit more than three off of any other pitcher.
Prior to Lonesome George…
Dale Alexander batted .345 in his first 130 career games, with his first coming on April 16, 1929. Alexander, a lifetime .331 hitter with 811 hits, may have been on his way to a Hall of Fame career, but he suffered third-degree burns undergoing “electrically induced heat” treatment for a twisted knee that resulted in a gangrene infection that nearly cost him his leg, but did, in effect, cost him his career.
Before D.A…
Chuck Klein debuted on July 30, 1928. Klein batted .347 over his first 130 major league games and went on to be a career .320 hitter with 2,076 hits. Even better known for his power, amassing 300 home runs, which was seventh all-time upon his retirement, Chuck was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 1980, unfortunately, though, he had died 22 years earlier.
Stats aside: Chuck Klein was a hipster before it was cool, as he, in a way, took advantage of “The Coors Effect” before it ever existed. He was a career .395/.448/.705 hitter at the Baker Bowl, but a .277/.339/.451 hitter everywhere else. By comparison, Larry Walker was a career .381/.462/.710 hitter at Coors Field and a .282/.373/.500 hitter everywhere else…and Klein didn’t have to deal with that pesky “Hangover Effect.”
Before Klein…
Lloyd Waner, too, batted .347 over his first 130 career games, his first coming on April 12, 1927. Lloyd bested big brother Paul over their respective first 130 games played, as Big Poison batted just .322 over his first 130 career games, but Big Poison had the better career. Lloyd was a career .316 batter with 2,459 hits, and Paul was a career .333 hitter with 3,152 hits, but both reside in the Hall of Fame for eternity. They join Harry and George Wright as the only pairs of brothers in the Hall of Fame. Harry and George, though, had another brother Sam, but he was a career .168 hitter with just 29 hits.
Stats aside: Paul and Lloyd Waner accounted for 26.9 percent (1,338) of the Pirates 4,970 hits from 1927 to 1929.
Before Poison…
Mickey Cochrane debuted on April 14, 1925, and batted .341 over his first 130 major league contests. He was three-time World Series Champion and a career .320 hitter with 1,652. That, as a backstop, was good enough for him to gain entrance into baseball’s hallowed halls, inducted into the Hall of Fame by BBWAA in 1947.
Facts aside: Cochrane’s career ended on May 25, 1937, after a near-fatal head injury resulting from being hit in the head by a Bump Hadley pitch. Miraculously, he recovered and then went on to serve in the United States Navy, then in his 40s, during World War II.
Prior to Cochrane…
Earle Combs, who debuted on April 16, 1924, hit .347 through his first 130 career games. Combs was a three-time World Series Champion (as a player, winning six more as a coach) who led the 1927 Murders’ Row Yankees with 231 hits. He finished his career with a .325 batting average and 1,866 hits, and for his efforts, he was granted entrance into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 1970.
Before Combs…
Eddie Moore is among the short list of players…on this short list, who started hot and quickly faded. He debuted on Sept. 25, 1923, and went on to bat .345 over his first 130 games, but hit just .273 in 618 games after that. He finished a lifetime .285 hitter with 706 big league hits.
Before Moore…
Fred Haney is another ballplayer who started hot but fell off rather quickly. He debuted on April 18, 1922, and went on to hit .342 over his first 130 career games. He batted just .260 over his remaining 494 career games and finished a lifetime .275 hitter with 544 hits. Though, for Haney, when his baseball career ended it really had only just begun. He went on to manage the St. Louis Browns, Pittsburgh Pirates, and then led the Milwaukee Braves to a World Series Championship in 1957, Henry Aaron’s lone ring. Later he became the first general manager of the expansion Los Angeles Angels – that subsequently became the California Angels, then the Anaheim Angels, then the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, before taking things full circle, becoming the Los Angels, again, in 2016.
Before Haney…
Jim Bottomley made his debut just a few months later on Aug. 18, 1922. He batted .353 during his first 130 games and parlayed that into a Hall of Fame career during which he hit .310 with 2,313 hits. Inconceivably, his batting average of .310 was higher than his winning percentage as a manager (.273).
Stats aside: Jim Bottomley had 42 doubles, 20 triples, and 31 home runs in 1928. He is the only player in history to have at least 40 doubles, 20 triples, and 30 home runs in a season.
Prior to Bottomley…
Kiki Cuyler debuted on Sept. 29, 1921, but, incredibly, did not have his first big league hit until nearly two years later on Sept. 22, 1923. He played exactly 130 games over his first four seasons, batting .344 during that span. As it turns out, he was pretty good from game No. 131 until the end of his career. He finished his career with a .321 average and 2,299 hits and was inducted into the Hall of Fame posthumously in 1968.
Stats aside: Cuyler (1925) and Home Run Baker (1912) are the only players in history to have at least 40 doubles, 20 triples, 10 homers, and 40 stolen bases in a single-season.
Before Kiki…
Hack Miller is like Kiki Cuyler, in that the beginning of his career was odd, not that he was a Hall of Famer. Miller made his debut on Sept. 22, 1916. He did not play his 130th career game until nearly six years later on Sept. 18, 1922. Nonetheless, Miller batted over that stretch. He was a career .323 hitter, but his success was short-lived, spanning just 349 games. Though Miller was not a Hall of Famer, perhaps his bat collection should have its own exhibit, as he swung clubs ranging from 47 to 65 ounces.
Before Hack…
Benny Kauff had a five-game cup of coffee with the New York Highlanders – the modern Yankees – in 1912, making his debut on April 12th that year. The remaining 125 games of his first 130 came with the Indianapolis Hoosiers of the Federal League. He batted .372 over those 130 games. The Federal League, though, is not recognized by Major League Baseball as a major league entity, and perhaps justly so – Kauff was a lifetime .357 hitter in the Federal League, but just a .287 hitter at the MLB-level. So, this one doesn’t count, but Kauff left baseball in 1918 to serve during World War I, so, honorable mention.
Before Kauff…or, I guess, really, prior to Hack again…
Finally, we have arrived, Shoeless Joe Jackson debuted on Aug. 25, 1908, he played just 30 games in his first three seasons at the big league level, playing in his 130th game on Aug. 7, 1911. Shoeless Joe batted .378 during his first 130 games and would go on to hit .408 that year in his first full big league season. He was a career .356 hitter with 1,772 hits in what should be a Hall of Fame career, but wasn’t, because he was in on the 1919 Black Sox Scandal to fix the World Series…allegedly.
On Wednesday, Jacob deGrom went seven strong innings, allowing just two hits and one walk with 14 strikeouts over seven innings of shutout ball against the Marlins. He also took Miami’s starter, Trevor Richards deep, in his first at-bat, for the second home run of his big league career.
In doing so, deGrom became just the eighth pitcher during the modern era to strike out at least 14 batters during a game in which he contributed to his team’s offense with a big fly.
Let’s take a look at the other seven…
On Aug. 16, 2015, Giants’ Madison Bumgarner tossed a complete game shutout, striking out 14 batters, going 2-for-3 at the dish with a double off Nationals’ starter Joe Ross and a homer, in the 7th inning, off relief hurler Casey Janssen. Box score courtesy of baseball-reference.
On Aug. 21, 1977, Steve Carlton led the Phillies to victory, tossing a complete game with 14 strikeouts, hitting a home run off Astros’ reliever Gene Pentz in the 6th inning. Carlton, though, allowed two home runs in that game, both to Enos Cabell – representing the lone multi-homer game of Cabell’s career. Box score courtesy of baseball-reference.
On May 29, 1973, Mets’ Tom Seaver struck out 16 San Francisco Giants in a complete game win. He went 2-for-3 at the plate, hitting a 5th inning go-ahead home run off Jim Barr. Seaver allowed one homer in the game, to Willie McCovey. It was the 394th home run of McCovey’s career. Box score courtesy of baseball-reference.
On Aug. 30, 1972, Bob Gibson tossed a complete game, allowing just three earned runs, with 14 strikeouts, hitting a game-tying 6th inning home run off Jim Willoughby. For his efforts, he earned a loss, as the Cardinals faltered to the Giants, 3-2. Box score courtesy of baseball-reference.
On July 31, 1963, the Indians and Angels played two and in the Game 2, Pedro Ramos got the nod. Ramos would strike out 15 batters, but allowed five runs, including home runs to Lee Thomas and Leon Walker. Ramos, though, hit a pair of his own. His first was a game-tying home run, off Eli Graba, in the third inning. His second was the second of back-to-back-to-back-to-back home runs off Paul Foytack in the 6th inning. Cleveland won the slugfest, 9-5. Box score courtesy of baseball-reference.
Stats aside: the July 31, 1963 instance became just the second time in history that a team had hit back-to-back-to-back-to-back home runs, one of eight times overall. The first, came just two seasons prior, when Braves’ Eddie Mathews, Henry Aaron, Joe Adcock, and Frank Thomas hit four-straight against the Reds. This instance, though, was the first time that a team did so off a single pitcher.
On May 1, 1959, Early Wynn tossed a one-hit shutout, with 14 strikeouts, over the Red Sox. Wynn upped the ante in this one, not only by out-hitting their entire lineup, two-to-one, but by hitting a go-ahead, solo home run, off Tom Brewer, with the game tied at zeros to leadoff the bottom of the 8th inning. Oddly, Brewer had just one strikeout in the game; Wynn closed out the 9th inning, setting the Red Sox down 1-2-3, with a pair of strikeouts. Box score courtesy of baseball-reference.
On June 14, 1952, Warren Spahn gave the Braves 14 innings of one-run ball. He added a go-ahead home run in the 6th inning, off Willie Ramsdell…and yet, it was not enough. Chicago got the best of Spahnny in the top of the 15th, scoring a pair on a Hal Jeffcoat triple. Spahn finished with 18 strikeouts on the hill and zero at the dish, earning himself a loss. Box score courtesy of baseball-reference.
On July 20, 1925, Dazzy Vance spun ten innings of three-run ball, striking out a career-high 17 batters. Dazzy did just about everything himself that day, hitting a game-tying two-run home run, off Duster Mails, in the 5th inning, and then a walk-off single, again off Mails, in the 10th inning. Brooklyn bested St. Louis, 4-3. Box score courtesy of baseball-reference.
March 29th is observed annually as National Vietnam War Veterans Day, recognizing veterans who served in the United States military during the Vietnam War.
Of the 2,709,918 Americans to serve in Vietnam, six were major league ballplayer, but there were 101 total professional ballplayers who answered their country’s call in its time of need – five of whom, gave their lives.
Kerry L. Taylor
Kerry L. Taylor played second and third base in rookie ball for the Twins in 1968. In all, he played just 18 games and batted just .125, with six hits in 48 at-bats.
He was a Specialist Fourth Grade in the United States Army and was killed by exploding ordinance on January 21, 1970, in Long Khanh, South Vietnam. He was just 19 years old.
Hall of Famer in my book.
Joseph F. McCarthy, Jr.
Joseph F. McCarthy, Jr. played third base in the Northwest League in 1966 and the Florida State League, both as a member of the Braves. He was a career .169 hitter, playing a total of just 34 career games.
He, too, was a Specialist Fourth Grade in the United States Army and was killed by a rocket-propelled grenade on May 25, 1969, in Tay Ninh, South Vietnam. He was 22 years old.
Hall of Famer in my book.
Charles J. Chase
Charles J. Chase was drafted in the first round (18th overall) by the Twins in the January 1966 Draft. He was an outfielder for the Gulf Coast League Twins in 1966. He touted a stout .394 on-base percentage, long before it became an official statistic in 1984, in 45 games.
After the 1966 season, he was drafted by the United States Army. An on June 11, 1968, Staff Sergeant C. J. Chase was killed by “friendly fire” during a firefight with North Vietnamese Army troops. He was 21 years old.
Posthumously, he was awarded the Bronze Star for his actions and leadership in Vietnam. His citation states:
“For meritorious service in connection with military operations against an armed, hostile force in the Republic of South Vietnam – Staff Sergeant Charles Chase distinguished himself while serving as a platoon sergeant with Company A, First Battalion, 35th Infantry, 4th Infantry Division during the period of April – June 1968. Staff Sergeant Chase’s cheerful attitude and concern for his men earned him the respect and friendship of the entire company. His outstanding achievements and personal integrity and exemplary devotion to duty are keeping with the highest traditions of the military service, and reflect great credit to him, his unit, and the United States Army.”
Hall of Famer in my book.
Eddie D. Glinnen
Eddie Glinnen played with the Giants during Spring Training and briefly in the minors in 1968, playing third base. Soon after, he was serving as a Specialist Fourth Grade in the United States Army. He was wounded in an accident on January 1, 1970, in Dau Tieng, Binh Duong Province, Vietnam, and died ten days later as a result of his wounds. He was 21 years old.
Hall of Famer in my book.
Udell Chambers
Udell “Dell” Chambers, a shortstop and a centerfielder, was by far the most talented ballplayer of the ground. After batting .209/.396/.319 in 39 games for the Gulf Coast League Braves in 1966, he went on to hit .325/.450/.501 with a league-leading 27 doubles, adding 12 home runs and 28 stolen bases in 100 games for the Lexington Braves in 1967.
Dell, a black man, was not drafted by the Braves, signing out of St. Louis Community College at Meramec, but he was selected by the United States Army. On June 21, 1968, in Binh Duong Province, South Vietnam, Private First Class Udell Chambers was killed in action, struck by rocket and mortar fire. He was 20 years old.
