As a baseball writer, it is only right that, come October, I follow suit and give you all my very unlikely, highly improbable postseason predictions. At first glance, I saw a very easy path to a rematch of the reigning champion Braves and the 106-win Astros. But, it’s the postseason where miracles happen and stars are born. It cannot be THAT easy, can it? I mean, the last time we have had a rematch in the World Series was the Yankees and Dodgers in 1978. The odds on a rematch have to be ridiculous, not to mention boring. So, let’s get fun with it, and maybe hypothetical, and predict the 2022 MLB Postseason.
Series winner in Bold, Number of games the series lasts in parentheses
AL Wild Card Series Winners – Cleveland Guardians (3) & Seattle Mariners (3)
Cleveland and Tampa are so so similar, as they both represent this new-school version of old-school ideology in their own, unique way. Cleveland runs on youth and energy mixed with strike throwers, while Tampa is fueled by gasoline-powered arms and timely-hitting. Cleveland has better starting pitching, and if they can get 2 of these games to Emmanuel Clase, the league leader in saves, with a lead, they win this series. I think they do just that at home, as Cleveland just has this sense of magic to them, and it sort of reminds me of the Royals teams circa mid 2010’s. This will be a fun series to watch if you enjoy great pitching and small ball. Guardians head to the Bronx.
This is the best matchup we will see in the Wild Card Round, hands down. Elite top of the rotation starting pitching, top tier power bats, and two teams with serious edge. The Blue Jays are rebounding from a disappointing 2021 season with a vengeance and still have more to prove, as their window is closing more than it is opening.
Seattle is entering its first postseason since 2001, but this magical season is meant for more than just getting to the dance. Seattle has more depth in its rotation and bullpen, and in a matchup of teams who can hit the ball out of the ballpark, the team with the more staunch pitching takes the series. Give me the M’s.
NL Wild Card Series Winners – St. Louis Cardinals (3) & San Diego Padres (3)
The Cardinals have so much depth, and although that isn’t as important in the lineup in this three-game format, pitching depth is vital. The additions of Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery along with the return of Jack Flaherty have added significant strength to the rotation, and with Mikolas and Wainwright, the Cards have arms. Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos are at the back end to lock things down, and Goldschmidt and Arenado are stars in the middle of the order.
On the other side, the Phillies are for real too. They backpedaled into the 6 seed, but they have star-power that can light it up in October too. Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler are both aces and will make it tough on the Cardinals offense, and if Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and the rest of the offense can step up, they will have a chance. Nola has done it once this year already and Phils would love to see a repeat of that performance – Aaron Nola on his Complete Game Shutout against St Louis. I don’t think it happens that way, though. St Louis will get to one of Zach Wheeler or Aaron Nola, which will ultimately put the Phillies in an unfavorable spot, as their best chance to take the best-of-three set is winning the first two with their aces on the bump. If this gets to a third game, the Cardinals will head to the NLDS. I’ll ride with the birds.
This is the upset of the Wild Card Round, potentially the entire postseason. I am not a Mets hater or someone who wants the world to burn, but let’s talk about this. The Padres have one of the hottest rotations heading into the postseason. Blake Snell is pitching with fire, Joe Musgrove has allowed 1 ER in his last 4 starts, and Yu Darvish was just named the NL Pitcher of the Month for September. Remember that Josh Hader guy? He gave up ONE earned run in September and hasn’t allowed that run since September 5th. That is the pitching side of things, and we aren’t even talking about two of the top 10 baseball players in the world in the middle of that lineup in Juan Soto and Manny Machado.
The Padres will certainly not fold, and I don’t think they are going to be scared of the hostile New York environment. Now, the Mets are for real, do not misinterpret my words. Scherzer and DeGrom are two of the greatest to ever toe the rubber, and if
the Mets lose game one with Mad Max we will absolutely see Jacob DeGrom in game two. This offense is deep, too, as Francisco Lindor has returned to star status, Pete Alonso tied for the lead for RBI in all of MLB, and Jeff McNeil just won the batting title. This is a really, really good Mets team which is indicative of a team that wins 101 games. But, similar to the other NL Wild Card series, if this gets to game three, the Padres win the series. I will take Joe Musgrove over any combination of Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, and Carlos Carrasco. I know it isn’t safe, but the hell with safe. it is October! Give me the Friars.
AL Division Series Winners – New York Yankees (5) & Houston Astros (3)
Pretty chalk picks here, but it isn’t that simple for the Yanks. Mentioned before, but Cleveland can pitch. Shane Bieber, Triston Mackenzie, and Cal Quantrill will matchup very well in this series, and obviously Clase is tough on everyone. I just can’t see the Guardians hanging offensively, though. The Yankees will not be stifled three different times in this series, and if the staff holds up for the bombers, this series is theirs by a small margin. Gerrit Cole will be Gerrit Cole and the rest of the rotation will follow suit, and even though the Cleveland pitching will make it very difficult, the offense will muster enough up to skate by and move on to the ALCS.
A big key in this series, though, is the Yanks’ left handed bats. Cleveland will consistently throw a number of righties at this Yankees team, and if guys like Anthony Rizzo, Matt Carpenter, and maybe Oswaldo Cabrera can come up with big at bats, it will lend a big advantage to the AL’s second seeded team. Scared picks aren’t good picks, but I’ll go with it anyway. Yankees in a nail-biter.
Houston is a juggernaut, and no matter how I try and look at it, I just have a hard time seeing any team in the American League beating them, and that includes Seattle. The pitching favors Houston. The offense favors Houston. The experience favors Houston. The history of this matchup favors Houston. The Astros won the season series 12-7 and have gone 30-18 against the M’s since 2020. It would also be misinformation to not list that the Astros have 2 of the top 5 AL Cy Young candidates among a group that has so many great starting pitchers, they will be forced to choose whether Jose Urquidy, Christian
Javier, or Luis Garcia will be used as the FOURTH starter. Yes, Lance McCullers is still nasty, too.
The Mariners are a fantastic story, and I would love to be wrong here as rooting for them will be the highlight of my October baseball fandom (if you need your own team to root for, here is a self plug story for you – Tinder for the Playoffs -Let’s Find You a Team to Root For), but the ‘Stros are just too good and that would be irresponsible. Houston breaks out the brooms on the way to the ALCS.
NL Division Series Winners – Los Angeles Dodgers (4) & Atlanta Braves (5)
“Wow Beau, you are so invigorating and spicy by picking all of the top two seeds to go to the Championship Series!” I know, I know. Get all over me on the twitter sphere or in the comments, but it is so so hard to see otherwise. The Dodgers have continually pounded the Padres in such a way that a little brother would even agree the treatment is unruly. The Padres pitching is hot and they are coming off a high of beating the Mets, only to look up and see that big brother has not had enough yet. The Dodgers are the freakin’ Dodgers. Fans and such love making fun of them for having only won the shortened season title in 2020, but this organization is so well run and there is a reason this is postseason number 10 in the last… 10 years. If Tony Gonsolin is healthy and the Dodgers can get anything out of Dustin May, this team can win the whole thing. Whether they get either of those guys back or not, they still go get this series from the Padres. San Diego is trying to get that pesky, annoying monkey off its back. The Padres lost 14 of 19 this year and are 83-155 since 2010 against the boys in blue. There is surely frustration, and if there is ever a time, now would be it. They have momentum and elite talent, but it is just hard to see them getting this done against the 2022 LA Dodgers. It’ll be another blue October in San Diego. Dodgers to the NLCS.
Braves and Cardinals – a tale as old as infield fly rules… But, really, what a fun series this will be between two great teams and even better fanbases. The Braves will roll out their star-studded, reigning champion roster and matchup with the only roster as deep as them in the National League. The difference here is the star power. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are probably future Hall of Famers, but those Braves are just something. Whether it is the lineup, or the rotation, or Kenley Jansen who has found his cutter of late, this Atlanta squad is built for this run. We all saw it last year, we saw it during the pennant chase, and we’ll see it again in October 2022. The Cardinals are a great story, and what a way to go out for Wainwright, Molina, and Pujols, but the Braves are deep and better. Bravos in six.
AL Championship Series Winner – Houston Astros (6)
The best team in baseball will go to the World Series. The Yankees have gotten a historic season from Aaron Judge and breakout campaigns from Nestor Cortes Jr and Clay Holmes in order to get this far, but reliance on that will not be enough. Houston has so much pitching that the leashes can be short and nothing is lost by moving to the next guy, while the offense is fully stocked with postseason experience and success. The Yankees could get great outings from Cole, Nestor, and Severino, but it is difficult to see them getting more than one of those or any additional stellar performances from the staff throughout the series, and the deeper it goes, the harder it will get. Give me the experience, give me the depth, and give me the Astros.
NL Championship Series Winner – Atlanta Braves (6)
This somewhat follows the notion of the ALCS as well. The Dodgers are GREAT. Numbers do not lie, wins do not lie, but neither does the truth. The Dodgers are not at full strength, and they need it to get past Atlanta. If Spencer Strider is available in this series, it just gets tougher for LA. The pitching for the Braves can legitimately matchup with the lethal offense the Dodgers present. Charlie Morton, Max Fried, Kyle Wright and potentially Strider combined with Jansen and Iglesias to close things out is hard, and that is leaving some really effective arms off the list.
The Dodgers will fight and this series could go either way, but unless Freddie Freeman and/or Mookie Betts play at above MVP levels, LA just doesn’t have the same level of depth as Atlanta. In these longer series, it is extremely difficult to get outs without great depth, and that is why we will see a 2021 rematch between the Braves and Astros. Braves chop their way to the Fall Classic.
World Series Champion – Houston Astros (6)
Houston, in its own way, gets a heavy weight off its shoulders. No cheating scandal. No quirky nickname. None of it. Just “Champions”. The depth of the staff is on full display again and we see the offense get big hits when needed. Expect Yordan Alvarez to fully embrace himself as the superstar he is and lead Houston to its first title since 2017, one that no one can have any gripe with. Also, it’s about time for Dusty Baker, too. So few people are revered the way is Dusty is, and the “inventor” of the high-five will get plenty of them while covered in champagne and cigar smoke. Houston may not have won as many games as the Dodgers, received as much media attention as the NL East, or had a player hit 62 home runs, but what they have done is won. For six straight years, they have won, and now, without a shadow of a doubt, they are rightfully and deservedly World Champions.
The chance this plays out the way I have so eloquently portrayed are slim to none, but isn’t that the fun of it? We have 12 teams, all with hopes that stretch far beyond their preliminary successes. Yes, it might be repetitive or annoying to see the same two teams in back-to-back years, but come on people, it’s the first time since 1978! No matter the outcomes or how wrong my presumptions might be, I’m just happy its that time of year again where we yell at our TV’s and watch October baseball.
