Nick Markakis recently retired, putting to bed a frequently asked baseball twitter question – “Does he belong in the Hall of Fame if he reaches 3,000 hits?”
Well, he fell 612 hits shy – far shorter than I imagined he would – and he was probably not going to be inducted either way. Not by BBWAA, anyway. If anything, he would have likely had to wait to be immortalized by the Veterans Committee… or whatever we are calling it today.
I want to note, I personally take no real issue with allowing ballplayers into the Hall of Fame should they reach an arbitrary benchmark, like 3,000 hits, but make no mistake about it – 3,000 is no more or no less arbitrary than 3,123 or 2,901 or 2,817… what it is, is an aesthetically pleasing number that represents a shit ton of hits, which is why I do not think any of these “benchmarks” should be a requirement or a standard.
Markakis, though, had what many would consider an underwhelming career for a player who amassed nearly 2,500 hits and over 500 doubles. He largely flew under the RADAR – receiving MVP votes in just one season, when he finished 18th – an average defender with a good bat who was both consistent and durable.
His career year came in just his third season, in 2008, and he was not named to an All-Star team until his third to last year, in 2018, the same year he also captured his first Silver Slugger Award… and his third Gold Glove Award, for whatever you think that is worth.
He was, by the definition of many, serviceable.
I would say that by the numbers this is fair, I guess, but at the same time, I think that he was largely underrated and underappreciated for two major skills: his ability to put the bat on the ball and his command of the strike zone.
The other day I tweeted that “Markakis had 2,388 hits to just 1,969 swings and misses during his career.” And while some were upset that I used a Braves hashtag for the year-year Oriole, almost all were in disbelief.
Of course, this prompted numerous “What about Gwynn?” responses, and unfortunately, swing data is not available for the duration of Mr. Padre’s career, but using what we do have, it is likely that he had about 2,000 more hits than swings and misses… though, it is no crime to not be arguably the greatest contact hitter since integration.
In total, Markakis saw a total of 36,333 pitches, meaning he swung and missed at just 5.42 percent of the pitches that he saw during his career… just one every 18.45 pitches, nearly twice as good as the MLB average of 9.80 during that same span. By comparison, Tony Gwynn swung and missed at 3.82 percent of the pitches he saw when he batted .372 in 1997 – once every 26.18 pitches, versus a league-wide average roughly one every 11 pitches.
Stats Aside: what is wild about this is that foul tips are now officially considered “whiffs,” of which, Markakis had 234 – so on 11.9 percent of his swings and misses, he swung and missed… but not really.
Markakis did strike out 1,230 times during his career, and while once every 7.58 plate appearances, versus an MLB average of 5.07, is still impressive, it is a ways from twice the MLB average.
So was Markakis just always going down looking?
Well, he had 432 strikeouts looking during his career – just two fewer than Tony Gwynn had total strikeouts – accounting for over one-third of his total career punch outs, where as MLB average sat below a quarter during that stretch.
Markakis had a .357 on-base percentage, 33-points higher than the MLB average, during his career, which is indicative of his willingness to take a pitch and work the count. But what I find fascinating in all of this, something that is lost in all of the numbers, is that he often took strikes that weren’t actually strikes… or at least they shouldn’t have been.
Of the 36,333 pitches that Markakis had seen in his career, he watched 7,437 strikes go by. Now, unfortunately, strike zone data is not available prior to 2008, but we do know that since 2008, Markakis saw 6,577 strikes, of which, 1,548 were actually out of the zone… if we extrapolate that same percentage over 2006 and 2007, we are talking about 1,750 called strikes that were not strikes! That is 23.5 percent of his total strikeouts looking – one of every 4.25.
Even more damning is that from 2008 to 2020, of his 364 strikeouts looking, over one-third were on pitches out of the strike zone, 123 in all, and if that rate remained that consistent through his first two seasons, for which there is no data, he is at about 162 strikeouts looking… on pitches that he rightfully spit on!
I should note that, as we all know, umpires make these mistakes on all hitters, but their crimes against Nick Markakis are more egregious to the tune of about an increase of 25 percent.
Nick Markakis, 3,000 hits or not, falls shy of the Hall of Fame in my eyes, but that dude could f***ing hit, he could handle the lumber and displayed mastery over the strike zone, and he will be an awesome addition to any ballclub as a hitting instructor or coach.
Underwhelming? Perhaps, maybe by some standards. But underrated and underappreciated, by my standards, for sure.
