One day after quarterback Jalen Hurts led the Eagles to an upset victory over the Saints in his first NFL start, Max Kellerman, via ESPN’s First Take, made a bold statement:
“You can’t trade Carson Wentz! You won’t find a single taker in the NFL, because he stinks!”
Fact check: False.
Kellerman aptly, albeit smugly fills the ‘other guy’ role opposite Stephen A. Smith on the popular ESPN program. The main difference between the two is that Smith’s bombastic proclamations typically carry the weight of a verifiably informed opinion. Kellerman far too often spouts off aimlessly, like an unranked challenger attempting to trade punches with the champ. He’s a Giants fan, and that infects his analysis; especially in this instance.
Now, I’m not an NFL General Manager. I’m just an Eagles fan, equally inclined to defend Wentz as Kellerman is to throw him under the bus. But, if I were running the Eagles, trading Wentz would be an easy three-step process. Not only would there be a taker; there would be a bidding war.
Step 1:
The Eagles need to accept the fact that the guaranteed money on Wentz’s contract ain’t coming back. Remember back when drinking at bars was legal? I recall a time or twenty when it was time to settle the check at the end of the night and the number was astronomical. It feels great in the moment to throw em’ back and buy rounds for the bar, until the bill comes and you realize your friendship with Steve probably isn’t worth those two rounds of Johnny Walker Blue. But, there’s good news.
Cutting Wentz loose and incurring massive cap penalties in 2021 and 2022 is made much more palatable by the fact that the guy playing in place of him — and playing better than him — is making a lot less money.
[2021 Carson Wentz salary: $35 million. 2021-2023 Jalen Hurts total salary: $5 million.]
Every single football team in the NFL has the expectation, and hope, of spending a lot of money on the quarterback position. It usually means they have a good quarterback… usually. While eating tens of millions in dead cap money is typically unpalatable, it’s kind of a moot point if the backup is outperforming the starter.
The Eagles would be best advised to take a Billy Bean-like dollars-per-win approach. The money is going to Wentz’s bank account either way, but the dollars are more equitably spent starting the QB that gives the team the best chance to win. Right now, that’s Hurts.
Of course, it’s a game of projection. The Eagles have to decide which has more value: The likelihood and degree of a Wentz rebound versus the long term viability of Jalen Hurts plus whatever comes via trade in a Wentz deal.
That’s what a lot of people like Max Kellerman are discounting right now: the value of Carson Wentz.
Step 2:
The Eagles can talk up Wentz to potential trade partners all they want, but it’s hard to hide the fact that they benched him for a rookie. Luckily for Philadelphia, supply can be elevated by demand.
Dak Prescott is essentially the only starting-caliber quarterback that’s likely to be available this offseason. Cam Newton has five touchdown passes in 12 games and Jameis Winston, third on the depth chart in New Orleans, has thrown more picks than anyone in football since he was drafted in 2015. That’s really it. Wentz’s value is clearly elevated by this barren market.
I know it’s hard to remember anything before last week (it’s been a boozie quarantine for me, I get it), but Wentz was truly one of the best quarterbacks in football just 12 months ago.
Do you remember?… last year, Wentz led the worst wide receiver corps in football to a 4-1 stretch to close out the season and win the NFC East. He threw 10 touchdowns, just one interception, and averaged 301 passing yards per game.
He’s one of 13 quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for over 30 touchdowns and less than 10 interceptions in the same season (Fun Fact: Donovan McNabb was the very first in 2004).
He’s also only the fifth QB in history with multiple seasons of over 25 touchdowns and less than 10 interceptions.
And he’s going to be 28 years old. The contract is really the only issue.
Step 3:
NFL contracts are very complicated.
Here is the Cliffs Notes version of Philadelphia’s dilemma, via 94 WIP’s Eliot Shorr-Parks:
“Wentz is currently set to have a cap hit of $34.67 million in 2021. Cutting him is a non-starter — it would move his cap hit up to $59.2 million, and put the Eagles at around $89 million over the cap. They will not be releasing Wentz.
Trading him, believe it or not, actually has a positive impact on the available cap space.
If the Eagles were to trade Carson Wentz prior to June 1st during the 2021 offseason, Wentz’s cap hit would go from $34,673,536 to $33,820,608. That is a savings of $816,928 in cap space.
Repeat: The Eagles save cap space in 2021 if they trade Carson Wentz.”
Sure, every team in the league knows the Eagles CAN’T release Wentz, and really HAVE to trade him before the start of the 2021 season. There is leverage there. But, everyone seems to be discounting the Eagles’ leverage:
Wentz’s cap hit for the Eagles would be almost $35 million if he stays with the team. That’s the market price for a franchise QB. Any team that trades for him gets a $10 million discount, and that should be the leverage that pushes back in Philly’s favor. On top of that, the trading team can opt out after two seasons.
Might the Colts, who just gave $25 million to Philip Old Man Rivers, be interested in taking on a 28-year old former MVP candidate, at nearly the same exact price? Seems logical.
Listen, the Eagles might not be able to make a deal happen. If the draft pick compensation isn’t right, they’ll walk away and Wentz will remain with the team for another season. The money is spent either way. But Wentz’s reasonable salary should be A huge selling point. The Eagles shouldn’t have trouble reminding teams of that.
If you’re Indy, Chicago, New England… this opportunity doesn’t come along often. If I were them, I’d jump at it.
Consider:
Since 2011, 22 quarterbacks were taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft.
Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, and Sam Bradford were drafted #1 overall.
The (arguable) misses-
Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Daniel Jones, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, RGIII, Jake Locker, and Blaine Gabbert.
The (arguable) hits-
Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Ryan Tannehil, Jared Goff, Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes, and Justin Herbert.
Jury’s out-
Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa.
Excluding Murray/Burrow/Tua, that’s 7 hits, 12 misses.
That’s a 38.9% success rate on the top-rated quarterbacks in the draft! Teams are seriously rolling the dice with the most valuable draft picks on the board.
The Colts are projected to pick 22nd in the 2021 draft. They should jump at the chance to swap that out for Wentz on a likely two-year deal.
They’re getting off easy.
There’s a taker for ya, Kellerman.
Easy peasy.
