Scott Rolen, the Hall of Fame, and My Introduction to Advanced Defensive Metrics

One of my earliest memories of Scott Rolen came after the 1998 season, I had just turned nine years old and Rolen had just captured his first Gold Glove Award. I, a rather inquisitive nine year old who was probably a bit of a contrarian and not nearly as perceptive as I might have thought, recall questioning whether or not Rolen should have actually taken home the hardware.

I remember asking my father how Scott Rolen possibly won the Gold Glove Award when he didn’t even finish in the top-five in fielding percentage among third basemen – specifically citing Chipper Jones, who had finished a whole point higher. And my father explained to me that “Scott Rolen made errors on balls that no one else could even get to,” and that he “made plays look routine that would take Chipper Jones’s best effort.”

I now look back on this conversation as my introduction to advanced defensive metrics, and consider my father a visionary in his ability to analytically dissect a player, though he used exclusively the “eye test” and never quantified it.

Today, we attempt to quantify everything, and utilize statistics like defensive runs saved to attempt to place a value on defensive prowess, and these statistics, like the eye test from over two decades ago, view Rolen in a favorable light.

Of 19,902 ballplayers in MLB History, Scott’s 175.4 defensive runs saved – using baseball-reference’s runs from fielding formula, which is all encompassing throughout the history of the game – rank 13th, and he trails only Adrian Beltre (217.7) and Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson (293.1) among third basemen.

I was fortunate enough to speak with Rolen about some of these numbers, his career as a whole, and the Hall of Fame, but I grew up a diehard Phillies fan and even wore Scott’s number, so before we got down to business, we had to address the elephant in the room – was there any bad blood between Scott Rolen and the City of Philadelphia.

Scott laughed, “No, man, not at all. I love Philly, my time there helped shape me as a player. Philly fans taught me to play every single out as hard as I could, because they are smart, they notice everything. If you aren’t busting your ass out of the box, if you aren’t playing hard, they will let you know, and I carried that with me my entire career.”

He continued, “I don’t know where all that started, maybe because I was pretty quiet with the media – I always tried to answer questions, but that was it, I never filled silence. I’ve got a high school diploma, I didn’t think anyone wanted to hear my opinions on much beyond what they were asking me.”

“Actually, let me backtrack a little, I guess I have an idea where it may have started, and I have to admit, there were some bumps in the road toward the end where maybe I would have handled some things differently, but it was nothing but business and philosophy issues – issues beyond dollars amount… it was never really a me versus the Phillies type thing, and it was certainly not me versus the fans. Philadelphia had become my home, man.”

I believe that BBWAA pays a heavy premium to those who play shortstop and discount third basemen – in fact, BBWAA has inducted only seven third basemen ever in Chipper Jones, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Mike Schmidt, Brooks Robinson, Eddie Mathews, and Pie Traynor – and I contend that had Scott Rolen played shortstop, he would already be in the Hall of Fame.

“Man, I was confident in my ability to play, but I think that saying in hindsight that I could have had the same career at short would be a disservice to those who played there. I was at the right position for me. There was a time that the Phillies may have been kicking the tires with the idea of moving me over, but it never happened,” Rolen said.

He continued, “You know, it is actually funny, the only time I actually thought I might get a shot was my last All-Star Game [in 2011] – we were allotted one guy to re-enter in case of an emergency and Bochy asked me to be his guy. When he picked me, I was like ‘Are you sure I’m your guy? I am the oldest dude on this team.’ But he insisted, so I started, went out there, got my 0-2 with two strikeouts, and then sat on the bench ready to go anywhere… short, left… wherever.”

Whether or not Rolen could have played shortstop for his career can remain a matter for debate; however, the premium paid to shortstops by BBWAA, really, is not.

Perhaps an even more glaring example lies in a comparison to one of Rolen’s ballot contemporaries.

Now, yes, there is something to be said of Omar’s longevity, as he played 930 more games than Scottie, but we must also then note just how much more valuable Rolen was in those first 2,038 games – he averaged 5.58 WAR per 162 games played to Omar’s 2.49. In fact, Vizquel had just one season where he had even as many WAR as Rolen averaged per 120 games. And despite the fact that Omar will likely be inducted into the Hall of Fame based solely on the shoulders of his defensive prowess, Rolen averaged nearly twice as defensive runs saved per 162 games, 13.94 to 7.01.

I wondered if Scott thought that BBWAA was failing him, and if he feels that he is unjustly left off of some ballots because he played closer to the line.

Rolen paused, “I never really gave it much thought at all, honestly. I mean, you tell me these numbers, and I believe what you are saying, and I know you know this stuff, but I don’t think we give [the voters] enough credit. I never really thought much about how difficult it is to pick one guy over another or decide the fate of someone who might be borderline [on the Hall of Fame ballot] actually is until you asked me to vote.”

He continued, “I get fired up when you or one of my buddies who I played with text me and let me know that someone added me on their ballot, but after trying to fill this damn thing out myself, I don’t think I can hold anyone’s choices against them – hell, my vote doesn’t even count!”

I was curious as to who Scott felt might have gotten short changed over the years, where BBWAA may haven come up short, especially given his new found respect for the induction process.

“Fred McGriff,” he responded instantly. “He hit, what? 493 home runs, and he lost about a season with the strike [in 1994-95]. He was right there with a major number required to get in and falls short because of what, seven home runs? To me, 493 is basically 500, and playing against him… he was a wrecking crew.”

Rolen continued, “And on that, now I don’t know if this is even anyone’s fault, it might just be the process, the rules, whatever… but Jorge Posada, Jimmy Edmonds, Kenny Lofton, Carlos Delgado, are they Hall of Famers? I don’t know, but I don’t think they should have been off after their first ballot.”

The golden number is well known – it takes 75 percent for induction. But, throughout history the key number is actually quite a bit lower. There are only five players ever who have received at least 50 percent of the BBWAA on any given ballot who are not in the National Baseball Hall of Fame: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Omar Vizquel, all of whom are still eligible for induction, and Gil Hodges.

“Shoot, man, you have got to add Hodges for me,” Rolen responded. “He was great with the Dodgers, managed that ’69 Mets team… funny enough, he lived three doors down from my Mother when she was growing up in Petersburg, Indiana, and he used to play catch with my Uncles. I don’t know, maybe I am letting the stories that Mom told me influence my decision… he should be in, right?”

Gil Hodges debuted on Oct. 3, 1943, the Dodgers final game of the season. Less than two weeks later, he joined the Marine Corps, serving in World War II. From 1943 to 1946, he played in just that one big league game, making his “second” debut on May 8, 1947. He went on to hit 390 home runs – including 310 in the 1950s, second only to teammate Duke Snider (326), every other player ranking in the top-seven is in the Hall of Fame – and won three World Series Championships, two with the Dodgers in 1955 and 1959, and then again as the Manager of the 1969 Miracle Mets. All of that, and he was awarded the Bronze Star between his first and second big league games.

Modern sabermetrics aren’t the kindest to Hodges, but it is easy to forget that they are only applied in retrospect and that the game was played to a different standard over half a century ago.

So yeah, brother, I’d say he should indeed be in the Hall of Fame.

The Hall of Fame, though, was largely an afterthought for Scott, not something he was particularly striving for during his career.

“I never realized how cool it would be until that first year on the ballot. I was coaching my son Finn’s basketball team and we were on our way to practice when the induction announcement was being made,” Rolen said. “Finn says to me as we are riding up, ‘Dad, I think you are going to make it.’ I asked him, ‘Hey bud, when we left the house, did you notice any TV crews or people looking like they were setting up to do an interview?’ He says, ‘No,’ I told him, ‘Neither did I, and it seems like they are pretty quick to interview the guys who get in every year. I don’t think I am going to make it, bud.'”

Rolen continued, “I explained to him, all we need is five, we get five percent and we live to fight another day. And after they interviewed everyone who did make it, at the very end of the show, we hear ‘And Scott Rolen stays alive with 10.2 percent.’ He just erupted with the biggest fist pump you could imagine.”

“That has been the cool thing about this each year now. Getting to enjoy it through Finn and my daughter, Raine. The second year, when I got 17 percent, Finn’s telling me he thinks that it is a ‘good sign’ because that was my number in Philly, then the third year, we more than doubled that. To see my kids get as excited as they do for me, man, that’s what fires me up most – it’s kind of like I make it every year. And if I do eventually make the Hall of Fame, I would just be thrilled to share that with my kids, my wife, and my parents.”

Larry Walker, who was finally and rightfully voted into Cooperstown last year, his final year on the ballot, hopes that his friend doesn’t have to suffer through a decade before his induction.

“Scott was one of those players who could join a team midway through the season and instantly fill in all the missing pieces. Heck, he’d fill in pieces that a team may not have even realized that they were missing, too! He was great in the clubhouse and did everything on the field exceptionally well… he didn’t have much speed, though,” Walker laughed.

Walker has told me that he always got anxiety around Hall of Fame season, not because of the voting, but “because of the damn speech.”

Rolen, though, might already have part of his mapped out. He told me, “I am a believer in self-learning and pushing oneself, I always wanted to outwork the guy who I was facing – and I always thought I did, until later in my career when I was in Toronto… man, I’ll tell you right now, there is no one who worked harder than Roy Halladay – having said all of that, [John Vukovich] gave me the keys, and he taught me the fundamentals of being a third baseman – it was always ‘get big, play to the plate, and make linear moves.’ He taught me to play defense like offense – I believe in the RBI and the run scored, I believe the name of the game is simply to score more runs than the other team, but if I can defend against a run scored, then I am taking an offensive mentality with me on defense, and Vuke showed me that long before I knew that there were even numbers that backed this stuff up.”

“There are a lot of people who had a major impact on my career – Mom and Dad, of course – but another one that stands out for me is Walt [Jocketty]. He put together our World Series Championship [St. Louis Cardinals] team in 2006, and signed me to a deal that allows me to be a stay-at-home Dad now and spend my days with my wife and kids. Every single time that my kids were at the ballpark and Walt was around, I made sure that they said hello and thanked him.”

“I’ll tell you what, though, I definitely won’t be saying anything nice about Walk if I ever give that speech! As I recall it, they said that I ‘ran pretty good for a big guy,'” Rolen joked.

The last thing we talked about was the numbers – new school, old school, whatever – the numbers that say Scott Rolen belongs in the Hall of Fame.

“Like I told you before, man. I believe in the RBI and the run scored… and I believe in the base hit. I went up every time looking for a hit, had I gone up looking to just get on base, maybe by way of a walk, I think I would have been screwed. I know you have all these fancy numbers, and believe me, I appreciate them now, but I went to the plate with the ‘Hal McRae mentality,’ just looking to ‘put something in the basket,’ as he would say. I had just one ‘number’ goal during my career, and that was to drive in at least 12 runs-per-month, I knew if I got a dozen ribbies every month, everything else would fall into place. All of these numbers that you are telling me, that you say make me a Hall of Famer, boy, do I appreciate them now. But my understanding of advanced statistics doesn’t go beyond on-base percentage, and to me that wasn’t about accumulating walks – on-base percentage, for me, is the result of my ambition to score a run, a result of my desire to ‘put something in the basket.’ I’ll leave the off the scoreboard numbers to you.”

Rolen indeed did put quite a bit in the basket, it doesn’t matter if you look at analytics, sabermetrics, or baseball card stats – he is, unquestionably, one of the greatest third basemen in MLB History.

Don’t believe me yet? You will learn, by the numbers, I will teach you…

Scott Rolen is one of nine third basemen in MLB history with at least 70.0 rWAR, seven are Hall of Famers and Adrian Beltre is not yet eligible.

Rolen ranks fifth all-time in slugging percentage among third basemen with at least 7,000 plate appearances. His .855 OPS is sixth best in history, all five players ahead of him are in the Hall of Fame.

He is one of just four third basemen with at least 500 doubles and 300 home runs, the others are George Brett, Chipper Jones, and Adrian Beltre.

He also had 175.4 defensive runs saved, couple that with the 500 doubles and 300 home runs, and he is one of just six players ever with at least 150, 500, and 300, a list that is filled out by Cal Ripken Jr., Carl Yastrzemski, Willie Mays, Barry Bonds, and Adrian Beltre.

Rolen and Beltre are the only third basemen in MLB history with at least 300 home runs and 150 defensive runs saved.

Should we not limit that list to only third basemen, the only adds are Andruw Jones, Barry Bonds, and Hall of Famers Cal Ripken Jr., Carl Yastrzemski, Al Kaline, and Willie Mays.

Scott Rolen faced Braves Hall of Fame trio Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz a total of 200 times – he batted .317/.410/.527 against them.

Using Scott’s “rule of a dozen,” he is just one of nine third basemen in MLB history with at least 1,200 runs and 1,200 RBI, and among that crew, he has the fewest games played.

He played 17,479⅓ career innings in the field, and he played all of them at third base.

Rolen averaged 5.572 WAR per 162 games in his career, ranking 53rd all-time, a bit ahead of Chipper Jones (56th, 5.530 WAR/162). His 5.572 WAR/162 ranks fifth among third basemen in MLB history, trailing only Hall of Famers Wade Boggs, John Franklin “Home Run” Baker, Eddie Mathews, and Mike Schmidt. Chipper Jones and George Brett, who rank sixth and seventh, respectively, are both in the Hall of Fame as well.