Dave Stieb got his first and only shot at immortality on the 2004 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, the writers gave him about the same amount of time as he gave them during his playing career, as he tallied a paltry seven votes, and he was cast away the following year.
I contend that Stieb deserved a better look. Sure, his 176 wins and 1,669 punch outs pale in comparison to the hallowed standards of 300 victories and 3,000 strikeouts, but over the last decade or so we have learned to measure a ballplayer’s career utilizing more than just arbitrary benchmarks.
Dave Stieb initially retired due to injuries after the 1993 season, and then he returned for the 1998 season – a season during which he reported to Spring Training as a special instructor – before hanging it up for good… he left the game with a great career behind him, but having never finished better than fourth in Cy Young Award voting, he was far from a Hall of Famer… or was he?
Well, for starters, I do not only think that he should have won a Cy Young Award, I would argue that he should have taken home at least three, perhaps four.
In 1982, Stieb had his best Cy Young finish, fourth, behind Dan Quisenberry, Jim Palmer, and, the winner, Pete Vuckovich. The only problem is that he was markedly better than all of them. It is easy now to look at wins above replacement and note that Stieb led all American League pitchers with 7.6 WAR, equaling the combined totals of Palmer and Vuckovich. But WAR aside, let’s take a look at how Stieb stacked up against the 1982 AL Cy Young Award winner that season…
Pete Vuckovich: 18-5, 3.34 ERA, 30 GS, 9 CG, 1 SHO, 223.2 IP, 105 K, 234 H, 102 BB, 1.502 WHIP
Dave Stieb: 17-14, 3.25 ERA, 38 GS, 19 CG, 5 SHO, 288.1 IP, 141 K, 271 H, 75 BB, 1.200 WHIP
And just for the record Stieb’s 7.6 win above replacement were 4.8 more than what Vuckovich’s WAR total that season. He was also stellar down the stretch, completing eight of his final 12 games – being pulled after nine innings in two games that went into extra innings and after 11 innings in another – with a 1.95 ERA.
Edge? Stieb. Sorry, Clu Heywood.
LaMarr Hoyt took home the 1983 American League Cy Young Award, and Dave Stieb was on the outside looking in, as he did not even get a courtesy vote. Stieb, though, pitched just as well, even better by some standards, than he did the previous year (and better than everyone else receiving votes).
LaMarr Hoyt: 24-10, 3.66 ERA, 36 GS, 11 CG, 1 SHO, 260.2 IP, 148 K, 236 H, 31 BB, 1.024 WHIP
Dave Stieb: 17-12, 3.04 ERA, 36 GS, 14 CG, 4 SHO, 278.0 IP, 187 K, 223 H, 93 BB, 1.137 WHIP
Hoyt had a fine season, and he was especially adept at keeping men off base by way of the free pass, but yet again modern statistics tell us that Stieb had the better season. Hoyt’s adjusted ERA was just 15 percent better than league average, where Stieb was 42 percent better, and that his 3.7 wins above replacement were trifling compared to Stieb’s 7.0 WAR.
Sabermetrics or baseball card stats… I am leaning Stieb either way.
The 1984 season saw Willie Hernandez to the American League Cy Young Award. Hernandez, a relief pitcher, had a fantastic season out of the ‘pen, and his victory is not nearly as offensive as the fact that Stieb finished just seventh without a single first place vote – or nearly as great an injustice as the fact that Hernandez also won the damn MVP Award while a guy like Cal Ripken Jr. got virtually no consideration – so let’s take a by the numbers look.
Willie Hernandez: 9-3, 1.92 ERA, 80 G, 32 SV, 140.1 IP, 112 K, 96 H, 36 BB, 0.941 WHIP
Dave Stieb: 16-8, 2.83 ERA, 35 GS, 11 CG, 2 SHO, 267.0 IP, 198 K, 215 H, 88 BB, 1.135 WHIP
My contention here is that BBWAA was, or at least thought they were, ahead of the curve in that they knew the value of relief pitching and finishing games long before anyone had a clue – consistently and incorrectly rewarding relievers in the 1970s and 1980s with Cy Young Awards and occasional MVPs – when the fact is, they did not.
Thought aside: this is no different than how the modern BBWAA heavily favors defensive prowess, as we see Omar Vizquel, undoubtedly one of the greatest fielding shortstops in history, garner support for the Hall of Fame, despite having a bat that was nearly 20 percent below average for his career. The unknown here? Value added by having an all-time great defender over just a generational great – I say it is negligible; give me Jimmy Rollins and his great mitt and good bat over Omar Vizquel and his all-time great glove and incompetent offense. But what do I know?
I do not believe Willie Hernandez and his 4.8 wins above replacement would be taking home the Cy Young Award had this season played out this way in modern baseball. Instead, Dave Stieb and his 7.9 WAR and his adjusted ERA+ of 146 would likely be considered a more suitable victor.
But instead, it happened in 1984, regardless, with or without the sabermetrics, give me the guy who tossed nearly twice as many innings. That is three for Stieb…
Bret Saberhagen, the 1985 American League Cy Young Award winner, was, in my opinion, the most deserving of any of the AL winners from 1982 to 1985. So maybe BBWAA actually got this one right, but where they definitely went wrong was another seventh place finish for Dave Stieb.
Bret Saberhagen: 20-6, 2.87 ERA, 32 GS, 10 CG, 1 SHO, 235.1 IP, 158 K, 211 H, 38 BB, 1.058 WHIP
Dave Stieb: 14-13, 2.48 ERA, 36 GS, 8 CG, 2 SHO, 265.0 IP, 167 K, 206 H, 96 BB, 1.140 WHIP
This one is close no matter how you spin it, even looking at the wins above replacement, Saberhagen edging Stieb, 7.1 to 6.8, and adjusted ERA+, favoring Stieb’s league best 171 over Saberhagen’s 143.
Stats aside: perhaps neither of these hurlers should have been awarded the Cy Young Award that season. Bert Blyleven compiled a 17-16 record, 3.16 ERA, 37 GS, 24 CG, 5 SHO, 293.2 IP, 206 K, 264 H, 75 BB, 1.154 WHIP, and years later, when the statistics were founded, added a 134 ERA+ with 6.8 WAR of his own…
Again, maybe they got this one right, or maybe they got it wrong… again. No matter how you spin it, there is no way the Dave Stieb should be without multiple Cy Young Awards and at least four straight top-three finishes.
Dave Stieb could have, under different circumstances, found himself on a list with Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Greg Maddux, Clayton Kershaw, Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez, Jim Palmer, Max Scherzer, and Tom Seaver… among pitchers to win three or more Cy Young Awards, and then it might have been difficult to keep him out.
Dave Stieb was the best pitcher in baseball for a decade (1981-90) when he topped baseball tallying 49.1 wins above replacement over 2,284.2 innings pitched – 21.1 WAR than Hall of Famer Jack Morris accumulated over that period, despite Morris tossing 148.2 more innings.
Stats aside: Dave Stieb was also the best pitcher from 1980 to 1989, if my selection was too arbitrary for you, when he tallied 48.1 wins above replacement to Jack Morris’s 38.2 WAR. In fact, for a dozen years, from 1980 to 1991, Stieb led all pitchers with 55.6 WAR.
I am not (yet) prepared to say Dave Stieb belongs in the Hall of Fame, but I certainly believe that he deserved a better look than what he got from BBWAA.
