I’m a Hockey Player, but I’m Playing Baseball Today: The Hall of Fame Case for Larry Walker

In general, when I make a case for a ballplayer, I try to do so first with the evidence that they left on the field and on the stat sheet and then talk to the man behind that career. Larry Walker, like Tim Raines and Edgar Martinez, was very humble regarding his own career – it was difficult to get him to discuss his own numbers, and I am not a particularly gifted interviewer, so I did what I always do: just approach it like two dudes talking baseball.

I told him about a story that former big league catcher John Baker wrote for me last year when we were discussing the first annual Ballplayer Ballot:

“In the vein of science, let’s get anecdotal with a personal, biased anecdote. Here is a Larry Walker story: In 2004, I was playing for the Midland Rockhounds (The A’s AA Texas League Affiliate). We were in Oklahoma playing against the Tulsa Drillers. Two Rockies, Larry Walker and Preston Wilson, were there on a rehab assignment. Larry Walker came up to the plate for his at-bat in the bottom of the first inning, looked at me (I was catching) and said, ‘Well, let’s see how this goes, I haven’t even swung a bat yet today.’ Interesting, I thought, as I signaled for a fastball. I picked the low, first pitch out of the dirt. Mr. Walker stood totally still, like a statue, and let the pitch pass low. He had no intent of swinging, as he didn’t even take a stride. He was clearly tracking the first pitch. To everyone’s surprise, AJ, the umpire, called the pitch a strike! I almost did a double-take! What a terrible call. Without missing a beat, Mr. Walker looked back at the umpire and asked a question worthy of a Hall of Fame selection, ‘On the swing?’ He hit an opposite field homer on the next pitch, like only a Hall of Fame caliber player could, on his first full swing of the day. But that isn’t the reason he is on my list, he is on my list because the numbers say he should be on my list. To quote the one of a kind Jason Marquis, in the most New York accent possible, ‘Check tha numbaz.’”

Walker really enjoyed Baker’s anecdote – he laughed recalling the incident, “I was late to the park that day, and I didn’t get an opportunity to hit, I just went right on to the field.” He continued, “‘on the swing’ was a line I would use on a horrible call; that, or ‘calling by sight or sound today.’ I didn’t really get angry, I just made a joke of it – I just wanted to play the game and have fun doing it.”

But still, Walker is, by any measure, a Hall of Famer by the numbaz. He was a career .313 batter with 383 home runs and 230 stolen bases – none of the other 19,689 ballplayers in baseball history have bested him in each of those three categories.

He batted .366 with 49 home runs and 33 stolen bases in 1997, making him the only player ever to bat at least .350 in a 30-30 season. That same year, he slugged .720, making him the only ballplayer in history slug at least .700 in a season with even 20 stolen bases in a season.

But Coors right?

Well, he slugged .709 at home and .733 on the road that season. But we will get back to the Coors Effect in a bit.

I once heard Matt Stairs quoted saying that he would “give up his baseball career for five minutes on the ice with the Habs.” I asked Walker if he would do anything similar.

He laughed, “I wouldn’t go that far, but hockey was definitely my first love. I didn’t play more than 15 baseball games in a season until I was 16 years old. If anything, we were playing windmill softball. My first year in Utica [New York-Penn League] at 18 years old, I hit like .220. I stunk.”

You hit .223 that season, Larry. Don’t be so hard on yourself.

“So no, I wouldn’t give up my baseball career for hockey, but I would give up all of my home runs for a ring.” He continued, “I do have one, I just never won one. I went to Spring Training with the Cardinals in 2006 as a special instructor – me and Cal Eldred – and the Cardinals made sure we both got rings. Goes to show how classy of an organization the Cardinals are.”

Them’s fightin’ words, Larry…

I told Larry that I know Tony La Russa has advocated for him heavily and said, “most people know the kind of player that he has been his whole career. I mean, just a gifted, all-around everything. In fact, I think he probably would be in the top-three of just about every category: baserunning, defense, handling the bat.”

Larry responded, “Tony La Russa, man, we get along well. He likes a little humor – I cracked a joke to him the on my first day with the Cardinals. He said laughing, ‘we got a funny guy here’.”

Before we got into his time with the Rockies, we talked a bit about one of his Cardinals teammates, Scott Rolen, another guy who has been severely underrated by BBWAA.

“The list could go on and on regarding players who belong and who are not in – there are some guys who are friends and have the numbers, and then there are some guys who are friends who don’t have the numbers, but it is still tough to leave them out. The first one that jumps out to me is Scott Rolen. I mean, look at the numbers.”

I told Walker that I thought Rolen was great, a hero to me when I was a kid, that I advocate heavily for him as a Hall of Famer, and that he may not get in this year, but he has got seven more years on the ballot after this one – this is your last! And I asked him if he would be really disappointed if he doesn’t get in on this one.

“Yup, this is the last year – my last year watching the voting. It is cool, it is a thrill, but man it gives me anxiety – not the voting, there are nights I cannot sleep because I am worried about the prospective of having to do that damn speech!”

“I am not going to get too fired up because I don’t want to be let down. I will definitely miss tuning in to see what happens.” He continued with a chuckle, “If it doesn’t happen, my Dad won’t be happy.”

Now, I had to ask Larry about the Coors Effect and the lesser known Hangover Effect.

Both Baseball-Reference (BR) and FanGraphs (FG) have a ballpark factor in their WAR formulas, accounting for the infamous “Coors Effect.”  But neither formula account for – and may never really be able to account for – the lesser known “Hangover Effect.”

Kevin and I explain this phenomenon in much further depth in Incredible Baseball Stats, Version II, but to give a mile high overview as to what the theory is, it is the idea that, while players do indeed see a boost in their offensive production when playing their home games at Coors Field, that boost in production is at home and home alone – and when the same player is on the road, his numbers experience a far more dramatic decline than a traveling player who plays his home games in, say, Philadelphia.

Bear in mind, aside from a batted ball’s carry at high altitude, a pitcher essentially loses his ability to effectively throw breaking pitches when visiting Coors Field, where Rockies’ players play half of their games – home advantage. Then, when Rockies’ players hit the road, they may see that very same pitcher, throwing an entirely different repertoire or even just other pitchers throwing pitches that they are not otherwise seeing in half of their games; more over, many are experiencing exhaustion and sickness from playing at high altitude and then returning to sea level – road disadvantage.

Let’s take a by-the-numbers look at this…

Since the Rockies first season in 1993, they rank first in batting average, first in on-base percentage, and first in slugging percentage at home, batting .306/.370/.504. But, for every action there is an equal but opposite reaction, and the Rockies have batted .242/.307/.382 on the road during that same span – last, last, last!

At home, their .874 OPS is 53-points better than the second place Red Sox (.821). On the road, their .689 OPS is 18-points lower than the 29th best team, the Pirates (.707).

Overall, their OPS is 14.7 percent better than average at home and and 6.0 percent worse than average on the road.

So perhaps it is not quite an equal but it is definitely an opposite reaction. I contend that the overall advantage by playing one’s home games at Coors Field is probably does not offer any given player’s numbers much more of a bump – overall, when combined with road numbers – than playing at any other hitter friendly ballpark, because those players do not have to deal with The Hangover Effect on the road.

In the end, one of just two things is really possible: either that without the “Coors Effect” the Rockies have been otherwise more offensively inept than the Pirates, a team that has had 23 losing seasons since 1993, or that the “Hangover Effect” is real and its negative impact is great.

Note aside: I am well aware of the humidor’s implementation in 2002; however, the first, first, first, last, last, last phenomenon largely holds true for any decent sized period in Rockies franchise history. I am working on a far deeper analysis, and I theorize that playing on the Rockies does not, in general, afford a given player’s numbers, overall, the best over bump and that other teams may offer a better overall offensive environment. But that is for another day…

I asked Larry if he believed in the Hangover Effect was a real thing, as many do not despite the evidence, “the Hangover Effect is a real thing, I know that – but to be fair, it varies from individual-to-individual. There are so many variables. But one thing holds true for sure: say you are on a ten-game road trip and you are hitless in the first three games, then [the Hangover Effect] really [messes] with your head.”

Walker added, “I got a buddy who gambles and bets basketball – any team playing the Nuggets, if they are playing on the road in the next day or two, he is betting against that team.”

Larry didn’t really want anyone to take pity on him, whether he is inducted or not, “I feel bad for Todd, man. He has it worse than me with half of his games at Coors Field. He is so deserving of the Hall of Fame, but may have to wait it out – perhaps if one of us is inducted it will help out potential future Rockies Hall of Famers.”

Larry struggled mightily on the road in his first two seasons with the Rockies, I believe, because of the Hangover Effect – batting just .225/.314/.424, but as any Hall of Famer would, he adjusted, and batted .303/.403/.550 when traveling away from Colorado over his next six seasons. I had to ask him, how did he adjust for the Hangover Effect?

“I adjusted all the time, even at home. At-bat to at-bat, no matter where I was playing – the game is always about adjusting. I once did an hour long show at ESPN with Tony Gwynn, I spoke for maybe six minutes – Tony broke EVERYTHING down, I just tried to see the ball, hit the ball. I never tried to fix it via tape. I just try to simplify everything.”

Larry said to Gwynn, “Tony, the pitcher throws the ball, then I am going to see it and try to hit it, and if I do, I am going to run. I don’t breakdown my swing – the game is played between the ears.”

Gwynn’s complex approach to hitting certainly worked, but so did Larry’s simple methods.

Larry still did not want to talk much about his numbers, though, instead he shared a moment that meant a lot to him on a personal level from his career, “I was fortunate enough to be on the cover of Sports Illustrated, they called me the ‘Humble Hero,’ I really appreciated that because I try to exercise humility. As far as the numbers go, I don’t really know them until guys like you post them.”

Will do, Mr. Walker… Will do…

Larry Walker would have to return to baseball and go 0-for-294 for his lifetime batting average to dip below .300.

Larry Walker, the baseball pioneer: among Canadian-born players he ranks first in runs (1,355), hits (2,160), doubles (471), home runs (383), extra-base hits (916), total bases (3,904), RBI (1,311), hit-by-pitch (138), times on base (3,211), stolen bases (230), slugging percentage (.565), OPS (.965), wOBA (.412), rWAR (72.7), and fWAR (68.7). His .313 batting average is bested only by Tip O’Neill (.326), who last played on Aug. 30, 1892.

Wade Boggs had a 131 OPS+, he batted .369/.464/.527 at Fenway Park and .306/.388/.398 every where else.

Larry Walker had a 141 OPS+, he batted .381/.462/.710 at Coors Field and .282/.372/.500 everywhere else.

Larry Walker batted .393/.485/.571 in 33 career plate appearances against Hall of Famer Randy Johnson.

Larry Walker batted .381/.462/.710 (1.172 OPS) at Coors Field. The members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame batted a combined .325/.410/.564 (.974 OPS) at Coors Field. Stat via Hall of Stats founder, Adam Darowski.

Larry Walker batted .282/.372/.501 away from Coors Field.

Dave Winfield* batted .283/.353/.475 for his career.

Kirby Puckett* batted .318/.360/.477 for his career.

Andre Dawson* batted .279/.323/.482 for his career.

Billy Williams* batted .290/.361/.492 for his career.

Jim Rice* batted .298/.352/.502 for his career.

Asterisk denotes a Hall of Famer; Walker leads the group in: rWAR, OPS+, fWAR, wOBA, and wRC+.

Larry Walker batted .322/.394/.587 with 65 extra-base in just 103 games played in 1994. But COORS! Right? Well, the Rockies played at Mile High Stadium that year and Larry batted just .231/.231/.385 there… in three games as a visiting member of the Expos.

One full season (162 games) played by Larry Walker is worth about 226 games played by Reggie Jackson in terms of career rWAR.

One full season (162 games) played by Larry Walker is worth about 218 games played by Reggie Jackson in terms of career fWAR.

Only three players in history have had more more home runs (383), stolen bases (230), and defensive runs saved (93.9) than Larry Walker: Barry Bonds, Henry Aaron, and Willie Mays.

Chuck Klein* batted .395/.448/.705 at the Baker Bowl and .277/.339/.451 every where else.

Babe Ruth batted .342/.474/.690 for his career, and Reggie Jackson batted .262/.356/.490 for his career.

Ted Williams batted .344/.482/.634 for his career, and Jim Rice batted .298/.352/.502 for his career.

Larry Walker batted .381/.462/.710 at Coors Field and .282/.372/.500 everywhere else. Among them, Walker is the only ballplayer not in the Hall of Fame.

Let’s stop pretending, people: Larry Walker did not play half of his career games at Coors Field, not even one-third, in fact – it was 30.0 percent.

Two players who find themselves on the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot:

Larry Walker, you are a Hall of Famer in my book, and I hope this year, finally, in everyone else’s too.