I will make this clear: interceptions are exciting. As a stat, though, they are misrepresented and over-hyped. Interceptions are the Undrafted White Guy on Hard Knocks of defensive stats. Analogous to the win-loss record for pitchers in baseball — it just doesn’t say much about the player in question.
NFL head coaches are constantly talking about winning the “turnover battle,” placing a very high correlation between low turnover rates and victories. I am totally on board with that. It is very difficult to score more points than your opponent if you are routinely relinquishing offensive opportunities via lost fumbles and interceptions. But, here’s my gripe: fumbles are ostensibly the same thing as interceptions, yet we value them VERY differently, and for no statistically relevant reason.
When it comes to defensive backs (and especially cornerbacks), the interception is the star. Tackles don’t really matter. For some odd reason, forced and recovered fumbles don’t seem to matter much, either. We are in a vast Analytical Information Age, and we still use interception totals as a primary tool for ranking and rewarding cornerbacks.
In 2018, cornerbacks Kyle Fuller and Xavien Howard tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (7). Both made the Pro Bowl. Yet, prior to this season, Sports Illustrated/MMQB ranked neither player among their top-ten at the position.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) also left both players off their top-ten.
CBSsports.com threw the Pro Bowl pair a bone, ranking Fuller 9th and Howard 8th.
Sure, these examples are anecdotal and arbitrary, but what is notable is who cracked the top of these lists while NOT finishing among the league leaders in picks.
Of PFF’s top-ten, only four players finished in the top-50 in interceptions. That quartet grabbed just three picks apiece, good for a 37-man tie at 18th in the NFL.
This is a good place to stop and re-focus the argument…
I know what you’re thinking, because I’m thinking it, too.
I am not really breaking any new ground here — obviously, some of the top cornerbacks in the NFL don’t get a lot of interceptions because they don not get a lot of errant passes thrown their way — or many passes at all, for that matter, among the game’s most elite. PFF makes their bones on digging deep and disregarding popular “counting stats.” I’m not trying to introduce new statistics — I will leave that to Ryan — or change the way the pros grade defensive backs; there are way more intelligent and generally sober professionals for that. My message is for the NFL:
Stop rewarding guys with high interception totals!
In 2018, three of the top four interceptors made the Pro Bowl. In 2017, six of the top seven made it. In 2016, seven of the top ten. In 2015, eight of the top twelve… you get the idea. The league’s top finishers on the interceptions list are routinely given automatic consideration for the Pro Bowl. And Pro Bowl appearances lead to actual NFL dollars, via clauses in existing contracts or perceived value for future deals.
At the very least, defensive backs should have their top counting stat expanded into turnovers in general. If the NFL is rewarding outcome with the interception, they should value forced and recovered fumbles in the same way — I and many others could argue even more so! It still would not do much in terms of grading value, but it’s a definite improvement.
And if you still don’t hate the interception stat like I do, consider:
In 2018, The 7-9 Dolphins finished first in the AFC in interceptions, while surrendering the fourth-most yards and points. The 7-8-1 Browns were fourth in the AFC in picks, but surrendered the third-most yards.
The interception is cool, but it should NOT be king. Same goes for Budweiser…
(Argument for another day.)
