Two weeks ago, I talked about judging quarterbacks based on the big picture; that’s a process that can take years to play out. In Dak Prescott’s case, the stakes are high right now — Dallas has to decide whether or not to pay him with the big (Cow)boys, and gamblers/fantasy players are betting more than they can afford on Dak and “America’s Team” every week.
The best anyone can do is stockpile information. In Dak’s case, there is plenty, but it’s conflicting. He’s a streaky player who has been prone to awful stretches of mediocrity. It gets tricky when there is a lot less to go on. In the modern instant-access media world, whenever there is a shortage of information, there is a tendency to exaggerate short term trends. In which case, it is all the more important to recognize the difference between hysteria and historical.
Two weeks ago, Dak was an MVP candidate and the Cowboys were 3-1. It was easy to buy into the hype, but there was a mountain of data to suggest it was just a short term trend.
HISTORICAL
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is an enigma. He has gotten a lot of praise of late, though it is based entirely on just one good start. The circumstances behind it amplified its importance — suddenly replacing Eli Manning, who had started 232 of New York’s previous 233 games — but it was still just a single game. Jones threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 2 win over Tampa Bay, but has tossed six interceptions and just three touchdowns in three games since. For better or worse, he’s been the poster boy for knee-jerk hysteria.
Six months ago, Jones was the joke of the NFL Draft. Most experts had him slated to go much later than sixth overall to the Giants. Without even throwing a professional pass, he had the “bust” tag. After a decent preseason and good first outing, he was suddenly garnering Tom Brady comparisons. I blame Twitter… and the countless iterations of those two-man bickering programs that dominate sports talk TV.
In reality, Jones is probably something in between — a young, physically unremarkable quarterback who is going to struggle this entire season. Just as most rookie quarterbacks tend to do.
The last great quarterback out of Duke is currently 85 years old, and three of his first four games have been ROUGH. If you get early comparisons to Tom Brady, you have to earn it.
HYSTERIA
Road games, single season:
Player A — 29 TD, 4 INT, 2,511 yards passing
Player B — 28 TD, 5 INT, 2,656 yards passing
Player C — 31 TD, 6 INT, & 2,659 yards passing
Player A is Tom Brady in 2007, the season in which Randy Moss hauled in 23 of his 50 touchdown passes.
Player B is Peyton Manning in 2013, when he tossed an NFL record 55 touchdowns.
Player C is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes in 2018. Crazy.
When it comes to Mahomes, the small sample size doesn’t really matter. He threw the second-highest single season touchdown total in his first full season in the NFL (his MLB-style rookie year, if you will). That doesn’t happen by chance – as I suggest with Jones.
Mahomes accounted for exactly four touchdowns per game on the road in 2018 (31 passing, 1 rushing). Eli Manning, through 16 NFL seasons, has only seven career four-touchdown road games. Mahomes just turned 24 years old and he already has six such road performances under his belt. Hall of Famer Bob Griese scored four touchdowns just four times over his entire career, in both home and away games.
A true career road warrior, Mahomes is 9-3 away from Arrowhead, with 38 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions, and a 116.6 QB rating. For added perspective, Drew Brees has played 19 NFL seasons, and has thrown for more yards than any quarterback in history… but he’s never completed a season with a QB rating over 115.7.
He’s not so bad at home, either, with 3,406 yards, 26 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, and a 106.4 QB rating, good for an 8-3 record.
When it comes to Dak Prescott, the Cowboys know they have a good, but streaky quarterback. They must consider all factors when they decide whether or not to pay him more than anyone else who has ever played the position.
With Daniel Jones, the Giants need to just hang on and see what happens. Meanwhile, fans and experts alike would be best to relax with the week-by-week exaggerations.
Patrick Mahomes… enjoy the ride. The best quarterback in football is here, and he is not slowing down. Of course, after three straight lackluster performances, some in sports media have proclaimed that Mahomes and the Chiefs have been “solved.”
And that’s…
