Marcell Ozuna is closing in on a full recovery from his offseason surgery, repairing an injured shoulder that plagued him for the duration of the 2018 season. A healthy Ozuna will, in all likelihood, be slotted into left field on Opening Day, and he is my sleeper candidate for 2019 National League MVP…but it has little to do with his healthy throwing arm.
After a breakout season in 2017 – during which he was named an All-Star for the second consecutive season and finished 15th in MVP voting, taking home his first career Silver Slugger and Gold Glove Awards – he saw a steep decline in his overall production during his first season in St. Louis.
Ozuna encored his 2017 campaign – in which he hit .312/.376/.548 (149 OPS+) with 37 home runs, 124 RBI, 5.8 rWAR, 5.1 fWAR, 144 wRC+, and a .388 wOBA – by batting .280/.325/.433 (106 OPS+) with 23 home runs, 88 RBI, 2.9 rWAR, 2.7 fWAR, 106 wRC+, and a .327 wOBA in 2018.
But perhaps not all was bad for Ozuna last season, maybe, in fact, he was just unlucky – and I am not just talking about the nagging shoulder injury.
Stats aside: Ozuna did rally to bat .317/.363/.553 in his final 50 games in 2018, helping the Cardinals to a 31-19 (.620) record during that stretch.
His BAbip plummeted to .309, from .355 a year prior, well below even his career mark of .327, to that point, which may be indicative of some bad luck.
He had 213 hard-hit balls (95 mph or greater) last season, eighth most in all of baseball, sandwiching him between Mookie Betts (218) and Giancarlo Stanton (211). Of which, 158 had an exit velocity of at least 100 mph, good for sixth in MLB, five fewer than National League MVP Christian Yelich in the fifth spot.
He finished 23rd in baseball in hard-hit percentage, at 44.7 percent, just a hair beneath Bryce Harper at 45.1 percent. And his average exit velocity on batted balls sat at 91.5 percent, 15th best in baseball, better than not only Bryce Harper (90.6), but also Mike Trout (91.2).
So why didn’t the baseball card numbers reflect the great company Ozuna seemingly kept?
This is where he ranked in terms of batted outs:
- 95-plus mph: 100 (8th)
- 100-plus mph: 63 (2nd)
- Solid contact or better: 33 (7th)
- Barrels: 16 (1st)
Ozuna’s slugging percentage sat .150 points below what was expected – based on exit velocity and launch angle – on batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 mph, and .176 points below what was expected on balls hit 100 mph or more.
Moreover, he had the most egregious wOBA and a overall slugging percentage differentials, in terms of what was expected, in the National League, at minus-.027 and minus-.059, respectively.
Overall, though he did see his walk-rate drop nearly 3.4 percent, his overall plate discipline may have actually improved, as his strikeout percentage declined by 3.7 percent – swinging at pitches outside of the zone less often and making contact on pitches inside of the zone more often.
As a final note, of Ozuna’s 110 strikeouts, 14.5 percent were strikeouts looking on pitches that were actually outside of the strike zone. His 16 bad call strikeouts were third most in baseball last season.
Look for a healthy Ozuna to regress – rather progress – back to form and put up numbers that are just as good as, if not better than, what we saw in his breakout season just two years ago. And with the additions of Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Miller, the Cardinals could very well find their way back to the top of the National League Central.
Worth noting: Ozuna is at 40/1 to win the National League MVP. Might be worth a shot.
