Nolan Arenado just signed a record deal with the Colorado Rockies, during which he will be paid $255 million over the span of eight seasons – that is if he does not opt-out after the 2021 season.
That opt-out comes just in time for the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement (CBA). Currently, many players feel as though their earning power is handicapped; specifically, by the luxury tax – which serves, essentially, as a salary cap (for most teams, anyway) – and by complacent owners, unwilling to spend, content with mediocrity.
Perhaps instead of essentially levying fines on teams that are trying to win by spending, Major League Baseball should be taxing those who refuse to spend – winning, say, 63 games in the process. As it stands, a lockout after the expiration of the CBA seems inevitable.
Bryce Harper remains a free agent, and, according to you pick which reporter, as it stands, only the Phillies, Giants, and Dodgers are still in the running.
The major snag for Harper and Boras Co. with the Dodgers is that it appears they wish only to sign Harper to a short-term deal.
The Giants also seem reluctant to go long-term on Bryce – though according to Alex Pavlovic, San Francisco’s tone may have changed, but I am not buying it. Sure, the Giants and Harper may have “discussed” a 10-year deal, but that could be something as simple as Boras demanding a long-term contract and the Giants balking.
The Phillies, on the other hand, have offered Bryce that long-term contract, several reports have indicated a 10-year deal worth well north of $300 million.
So whats the hold up?
Well, according to former New York Mets General Manager and current baseball analyst Steve Phillips, the Phillies do not want to include and opt-out after three years, instead preferring to allow him to opt-out halfway thorugh. Steve insists that “Harper wants to opt-out after three years hoping that he can go back into free agency and ride Mike Trout’s coattails to a bigger payday.” Trout, of course, will be a free agent after the 2020 season.
Here is where Steve and I differ: I don’t think Trout has anything to do with it, if he did, an opt-out after five years might suffice; rather, it has everything to do with the impending CBA; in essence, Harper and Boras Co. want exactly what Scott’s former client, Nolan Arenado, got from Colorado.
So why wouldn’t Harper just take a short-term deal with the Dodgers or Giants, wait out the CBA, then sign another deal?
I assess that Harper wishes to sign long-term now, and the opt-out after the 2021 season would merely be Harper and Boras Co. getting everything that they want. I believe that Harper then would only exercise such an option if the CBA resulted in something drastic, like the suspension or removal of the luxury tax, or more likely, a major increase on the luxury tax threshold, which would assuredly result in a surge to player salaries across Major League Baseball.
In the end, Bryce Harper to Philadelphia seems to me, inevitable, he has been offered what will end up being a record deal, both in terms of total salary and average annual value (AAV), it is just a matter of whether Harper and Boras Co. are willing to compromise or the Phillies are going to give them exactly what they want.
Nailed it.