Last month, one of the best relief hurlers in baseball, Adam Ottavino, claimed “I would strike [Babe Ruth] out every time.” I do not think that Ottavino would necessarily strikeout Ruth every time, but I believe if we do “wake up the damn Bambino,” Ottavino would dominate one of the game’s all-time greats.
So how can I still refer to Babe Ruth as one of baseball’s greatest players? Simple, because human evolution, modern technology, and advanced medicine and training give the argument necessary context, but we will come back to this…
Ruth first set the single-season home run record in 1919, blasting 29 home runs, besting Ned Williamson’s 1884 total of 27. The best pitcher in baseball at that time – and perhaps of all-time – was Walter Johnson, known for his powerful fastball – deemed by Ty Cobb to be “the most threatening sight [he] had ever seen on a ballfield.” Johnson did not allow a single big fly over the span of 290⅓ innings pitched that season – though he did hit one!
Stats aside: Of Williamson’s 27 home runs in 1884, 25 came at Chicago’s Lakeshore Park, which was 186 feet to left field, 300 feet to center field, and 190 to right field. Prior to 1884, balls over the fence were ground rule doubles. After the 1884 season, Chicago left the friendly confines of Lakeshore for the more spacious West Side Park.
Only three pitchers ever have had more innings pitched in a single season without allowing a single home run, but hitting at least one of their own than Johnson did in 1919: Frank Smith in 1905 (291⅔ innings with one home run), Babe Ruth in 1916 (323⅔ innings with three home runs), and Johnson himself, 1916 (369⅔ innings with one home run).
My contention is this: Johnson’s fastball, thrown by “the most powerful arm ever turned loose in a ballpark,” again, according to Cobb, was probably only about 88 mph – perhaps peaking at 91.36 mph or 134 feet-per-second, as it was measured by a Bridgeport, Connecticut munitions laboratory in 1917.
In 1919, the Doppler effect was known, but RADAR was in its infancy, but the RADAR gun would not be invented for over 30 more years, but even then, motorcycles were used to determine a pitcher’s arm strength, so with all due respect to the Bridgeport, Connecticut munitions laboratory, I decided to conduct my own experiment.
…stepping back to human evolution, modern technology, and advanced medicine and training.
Looking at “leg speed” rather than arm speed, in 1919, the world record in the mile was held by Norman Taber, who ran 4:12.6 on July 16, 1915. The modern high school mile record is 3:53.43, held by Alan Webb, completed on May 27, 2001; the current world record is 3:43.13, by Hicham El Guerrouj, ran on July 7, 1999.
[Now, before we continue, we must take a minor (major?) leap of faith, because, let’s face it, not all athletes improve – or evolve – the same throughout time, but what if they did?]
From 1917 to present day, the world record in the mile has improved by 11.67 percent. Now, let’s assume the fastball has done the same.
The best hard throwing starters in baseball – your modern Walter Johnsons, if you will – are consistently throwing 98 mph. If pitchers improved at the same rate that mile runners did, that puts the velocity kings of 100 years ago at about 87.8 mph, when compared to today’s finest. Even if we call it an even 100 mph, then we are looking at 89.6 mph. And if we give Johnson the benefit of the doubt and say that his fastball, a century ago, was the equivalent to that of the best hard throwing modern day relief pitchers, at a blazing 103 mph fastball, in the vein of this experiment, that is a 92.2 mph fastball. Lastly, and perhaps sardonically, if we compare to Aroldis Chapman – who mind you, would not have been permitted to play among the likes of Johnson – and his modern record 105.1 mph pitch, that translates to just a 94.1 mph heater – a slightly above average fastball in today’s game.
My best conclusion?
Walter Johnson, the hardest thrower the game had ever seen, probably averaged about 88 mph on his fastball and maybe topped out between 91 and 93 mph.
Having said all of this, I do not think we should discount the greatness of players throughout any period in baseball history. Instead, we should compare players in terms of on the field performance only to their contemporaries, using only adjusted stats to compare across generations, the same adjusted stats that tell us that Walter Johnson and Babe Ruth are two of the all-time greatest players in baseball history. If we do discount the past because of factors relating evolutionary or revolutionary inevitabilities, 100 years from now our great grandchildren will write-off the stellar careers of the greats of our time, like Max Scherzer, Mike Trout, and yes, even Adam Ottavino, who indeed, would have no problem sitting down Babe Ruth.
Great article Ryan. With the height of the pitchers mound not being regulated and sometimes being rumored to be as high as 24 inches, an 88MPH would’ve have scary. Just imagine Randy Johnson throwing heat standing 9ft and releasing 11-12ft from the ground! Could’ve been almost impossible to touch at that angle. IMO
Sorry, but I completely disagree with this logic. “Leg speed” as you call it, is not about leg speed but about cardiovascular endurance. Comparing runners with pitchers would be no different than comparing cyclists with pitchers. Using this logic, you could probably calculate Johnson throwing 60MPH heaters.
The endurance of athletes has advanced a lot in the last century due to, as you mentioned, human evolution, modern technology, and advanced medicine and training. However, the top level power and strength of a man’s arm has not evolved as much. Based on maximum throwing distances through the years, it is easy to see that there were strong arms from the late 1800’s all the way through today with the maximum distances being just north of 400 feet and sometimes closer to 450 feet if the right conditions existed.
As for the testing that was performed on any of Johnson’s throws, it was far from perfect. They would have measured his speed as either an average speed or at a point that was close to home plate. Today’s radar guns measure speed right at the release point which is at least several MPH faster than the speed of the ball at home plate. In addition, the men who saw Johnson pitch and also saw later pitchers, whose speed was more accurately measured, all claim Johnson was as fast or faster than guys like Paige or Feller. In fact, Feller himself told a story about how Johnson was likely faster than him but didn’t have the curve ball that Feller had.
With all that said, I think you are doing a disservice to a man who by all accounts threw as fast as any man baseball has ever seen. Without technology to back it up, all that remains is a story that can’t be verified. But in my mind, you have all the verification you need when you look at the empirical data. Walter Johnson and 88MPH should never be mentioned together.
Johnson most likely threw close to 100 mph at his peak. When he was clocked at 91 mph during the one test, form what I’ve read (could be wrong) he had already pitched a game.
But the test took place in 1917. Johnson had already pitched around 3000 innings in the majors. He was losing speed on his fastball as is proved by his declining strikeout totals from that year until her retired.
Johnson was only 29 at the time of the test so he wasn’t old when his fast ball started losing speed.
He had simply pitched too many innings.
Feller was clocked at 100 mph in several better tests than the one Johnson took.
If baseball people who saw Johnson and Feller and said Johnson was fast or faster, I doubt they were lying.
It’s not difficult to experts to tell the difference in ten miles per hour.
I agree with you that Walter Johnson most likely threw around 100 MPH and I can use the data from the test in this article to show how they are wrong about how they are viewing this test. The mathmatic’s they are using is this 134 X 3600 = 482,400 divide by 5,280 = 91.36 all of that is completely accurate except that it is for a distance of 134 feet not 60’6″ which is what we really want to know. Physic’s allows us to know that when a pitcher throws a baseball it comes out of his hand at the fastest speed and slows down constantly. I don’t think they had an accurate way to measure the speed of a thrown baseball at 60’6′ in those days and were taking measurements at longer distance which really does not work for measuring pitching speed. My guess is Chapmans 105 would be very close to the 91,36 that Johnson threw if measured at 134 feet.